Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting

Arcangelis, L. de; Godano, C.; Grasso, J. R.; Lippiello, Eugenio

doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2016.03.002

Cited by 160 publications

(162 citation statements)

References 382 publications

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“…This complements our previous observation that the maximum earthquake rate is often reached much later than the initiation of a sequence and following substantial early activity ahead of the peak activity. Overall, we do observe a growing rate of preshocks as we get closer to the main shock, similar to a reverse Omori law (de Arcangelis et al, ). At closer inspection, we notice that about 1 month before the main shock, the number of preshocks increases substantially and stays about constant at a high level for the 10 days prior to the main shock.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…For events with M ≥ 2.8, we yield 1,243 preshocks and 1,381 aftershocks. This is in stark contrast to natural main shock‐aftershock sequences where aftershocks are about a factor of 3–8 more abundant than preshocks (de Arcangelis et al, ; Shearer, ). This complements our previous observation that the maximum earthquake rate is often reached much later than the initiation of a sequence and following substantial early activity ahead of the peak activity.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

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A Systematic Assessment of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Fault Activation Through Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas

2017

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Much of Oklahoma and southern Kansas has seen widespread seismic activity in the last decade that is attributed to large‐scale wastewater disposal into the Arbuckle group. Using a waveform‐relocated earthquake catalog, we perform a systematic study of the activity on several hundreds of identified faults. We use 93 sequences with at least 30 events for a detailed analysis of their spatiotemporal evolution. For most awakened faults, seismicity tends to initiate at shallower depth and migrates deeper along the faults as the sequence proceeds. No major sequence starts with the largest earthquake, and many sequences initiate months before they rise to peak activity. We study temporal clustering as a means to quantify earthquake interactions. Some sequences show no temporal clustering similar to Poissonian background seismicity but at much higher rate than the natural background. Other sequences exhibit strong temporal clustering akin to main shock‐aftershock sequences. We conclude that once initiated by anthropogenic forcing, portions of the activated faults in the Oklahoma/Kansas area are close enough to failure to continue failing through earthquake interactions. In many sequences, including those with the largest earthquakes, seismicity continues within the previously activated region rather than by growing the activated area. Therefore, monitoring seismicity with a low magnitude threshold and high location precision has the potential to detect minor activity as it initiates failure on specific faults and thus provide time to take actions to mitigate the occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

A Systematic Assessment of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Fault Activation Through Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas

2017

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“…We observe that creep events are organized in compact spatiotemporal patterns in contrast with depinning avalanches that appear randomly distributed along the interface, as well illustrated by the activity maps that supplement the sequence of metastable configurations. Remarkably, there is a similarity of such time correlations between events with the ones observed in real earthquakes, where a large main shock is followed by a cascade of aftershocks [21][22][23][24]. The statistics of the energy dissipated by earthquakes is characterized by the Gutenberg-Richter exponent b, which is equivalent to the …”

mentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In this way, our results give a clear interpretation of the FRG predictions. Further, they link the creep motion with the complex earthquake dynamics [21], where a main shock triggers a cascade of aftershocks [21][22][23][24]. We foresee these correlated dynamics being experimentally accessible by events' detection in ferromagnetic films [4].…”

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confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Patterns in Ultraslow Domain Wall Creep Dynamics

et al. 2017

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“…In practice, the aftershocks are mingled with background events, and a major challenge of any implementation is to accurately separate these signals in the face of regionally variable activity levels and detection thresholds. Previous efforts to isolate aftershocks have capitalized on the intrinsic clustering of earthquakes to suppress contamination and inferred that the productivity law fits a wide range of data with

α \approx 1

(Reasenberg & Jones, ; Yamanaka & Shimazaki, ; de Arcangelis et al, ; Kisslinger, ; Tahir & Grasso, ; Page et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?

et al. 2020

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The number of aftershocks increases with mainshock size following a well‐defined scaling law. However, excursions from the average behavior are common. This variability is particularly concerning for large earthquakes where the number of aftershocks varies by factors of 100 for mainshocks of comparable magnitude. Do observable factors lead to differences in aftershock behavior? We examine aftershock productivity relative to the global average for all mainshocks ( MW>6.5) from 1990 to 2019. A global map of earthquake productivity highlights the influence of tectonic regimes. Earthquake depth, lithosphere age, and plate boundary type correspond well with earthquake productivity. We investigate the role of mainshock attributes by compiling source dimensions, radiated seismic energy, stress drop, and a measure of slip heterogeneity based on finite‐fault source inversions for the largest earthquakes from 1990 to 2017. On an individual basis, stress drop, normalized rupture width, and aspect ratio most strongly correlate with aftershock productivity. A multivariate analysis shows that a particular set of parameters (dip, lithospheric age, and normalized rupture area) combines well to improve predictions of aftershock productivity on a cross‐validated data set. Our overall analysis is consistent with a model in which the volumetric abundance of nearby stressed faults controls the aftershock productivity rather than variations in source stress. Thus, we suggest a complementary approach to aftershock forecasts based on geological and rupture properties rather than local calibration alone.

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Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting

Cited by 160 publications

References 382 publications

A Systematic Assessment of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Fault Activation Through Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas

A Systematic Assessment of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Fault Activation Through Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas

Spatiotemporal Patterns in Ultraslow Domain Wall Creep Dynamics

What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?

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