Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

Detenbeck, Naomi E.

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12673

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…Low streamflows affect water supply, water quality, and aquatic habitats, particularly during extreme low‐flow events (Detenbeck, 2018; Hisdal et al., 2001). Low‐flow seasonality and climatic drivers differ among streamflow regimes and it is important to consider them separately (Section 1.1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme Low Streamflows on Four Continents

Hodgkins,

Renard,

Whitfield

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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Understanding temporal trends in low streamflows is important for water management and ecosystems. This work focuses on trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low‐flow events (5‐ to 100‐year return periods) for pooled groups of stations. We use data from 1,184 minimally altered catchments in Europe, North and South America, and Australia to discern historical climate‐driven trends in extreme low flows (1976–2015 and 1946–2015). The understanding of low streamflows is complicated by different hydrological regimes in cold, transitional, and warm regions. We use a novel classification to define low‐flow regimes using air temperature and monthly low‐flow frequency. Trends in the annual occurrence rate of extreme low‐flow events (proportion of pooled stations each year) were assessed for each regime. Most regimes on multiple continents did not have significant (p < 0.05) trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low streamflows from 1976 to 2015; however, occurrence rates for the cold‐season low‐flow regime in North America were found to be significantly decreasing for low return‐period events. In contrast, there were statistically significant increases for this period in warm regions of NA which were associated with the variation in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Significant decreases in extreme low‐flow occurrence rates were dominant from 1946 to 2015 in Europe and NA for both cold‐ and warm‐season low‐flow regimes; there were also some non‐significant trends. The difference in the results between the shorter (40‐year) and longer (70‐year) records and between low‐flow regimes highlights the complexities of low‐flow response to changing climatic conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme Low Streamflows on Four Continents

Hodgkins,

Renard,

Whitfield

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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“…Groundwater recharge, water that reaches the water table through downward flow (Healy, 2010), is an important component of water availability for drinking water, irrigation, and aquatic habitat (Detenbeck, 2018; Dieter et al, 2018; Nielsen & Westenbroek, 2019). Groundwater recharge can be computed or estimated with several different methods, including water‐budget, watershed, or groundwater flow models; methods based on streamflow records; measurements of downward water flux in the unsaturated zone; the water‐table fluctuation method; and by use of chemical or heat tracers (Healy, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater recharge in northern New England: Meteorological drivers and relations with low streamflow

Crossett

Hodgkins

Menk

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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Meteorological drivers of groundwater recharge for spring (February–June), fall (October–January), and recharge‐year (October–June) recharge seasons were evaluated for northern New England and upstate New York from 1989 to 2018. Monthly groundwater recharge was computed at 21 observation wells by subtracting the water levels at the end of each month from the level of the previous month; only positive monthly values were used to compute seasonal recharge. Precipitation, temperature, sea‐level pressure, 500‐mb geopotential heights, and various teleconnection indices were tested as explanatory variables for the interannual variability of recharge using random forest machine learning models. Precipitation within recharge seasons was positively correlated with groundwater recharge for most wells in all seasons. In general, whilst groundwater recharge in the study area was generally highest during the months of March and April, October precipitation was an important month for explaining the interannual groundwater recharge variability. This is likely because the variability in recharge in October may be high or low for given years. Sea‐level pressure and 500‐mb heights were typically inversely correlated with groundwater recharge during the recharge‐year and fall recharge seasons, as higher sea‐level pressure and heights are usually associated with clearer skies and less precipitation. The North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific‐North American pattern, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation teleconnections affected groundwater recharge differently by well and season. The influence of groundwater recharge on minimum daily streamflows during the subsequent summer/fall was also analysed. Summer precipitation was the most important explanatory variable for study streams whilst groundwater recharge and summer air temperature were significant variables for a few streams.

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“…Equations to estimate monthly means and medians during summer months throughout the state of Maine use drainage area, sand and gravel aquifers, and precipitation (Dudley, 2015). Models developed by Detenbeck (2018) Maine). Estimated normalized baseflows can, in turn, support the identification of stream reaches richer in cold-water habitat to be prioritized for restoration and/or conservation.…”

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confidence: 99%

Model estimated baseflow for streams with endangered Atlantic Salmon in Maine,USA

Lombard

Dudley

Collins

et al. 2021

River Research & Apps

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We present a regression model for estimating mean August baseflow per square kilometer of drainage area to help resource managers assess relative amounts of baseflow in Maine streams with Atlantic Salmon habitat. The model was derived from mean August baseflows computed at 31 USGS streamflow gages in Maine. We use an ordinary least squares regression model to estimate mean August baseflow per unit drainage area from two explanatory variables: percentage of the basin underlain by sand and gravel aquifers and mean July precipitation in the basin. This model provides the ability to estimate mean August baseflow in cubic meters per second per square kilometer of basin area on user-selected, ungaged sites throughout Maine south of 46 21 0 55 00 N latitude. The model has an adjusted R 2 of 0.78 and a mean 95% prediction interval of plus or minus 0.002 cubic meters per second per square kilometer. A map of the Narraguagus watershed in eastern coastal Maine shows reaches color coded by relative amounts of baseflow predicted by the model as an example of how this method could be applied throughout Maine. The map can be used to identify reaches with relatively higher amounts of baseflow during summer low flows for habitat conservation and restoration work. These areas have the potential to be high-quality habitat for Atlantic salmon and other cold-water fish because baseflows are known to moderate stream temperatures in summer low-flow periods.

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Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

Cited by 6 publications

References 51 publications

Climate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme Low Streamflows on Four Continents

Climate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme Low Streamflows on Four Continents

Groundwater recharge in northern New England: Meteorological drivers and relations with low streamflow

Model estimated baseflow for streams with endangered Atlantic Salmon in Maine,USA

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