Statistical Issues in the Search for Technosignatures

Balbi, A.; Grimaldi, Claudio

doi:10.1002/9781119640738.ch8

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…This lacuna is somewhat unexpected at first glimpse because technosignatures are arguably the true focus of "technological" life in the universe. It is natural, therefore, to contend that assessments of technosignature candidates warrant the utilization of Bayesian techniques (Haqq-Misra et al 2019; Lingam & Loeb 2021;Balbi & Grimaldi 2022), much like biosignatures, which are basically their nontechnological analogs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technosignatures: Frameworks for Their Assessment

Lingam

Haqq-Misra

Wright

et al. 2023

ApJ

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In view of the promising advancements in technosignature science, the question of what constitutes a robust technosignature is rendered crucial. In this paper, we first delineate a Bayesian framework for ascertaining the reliability of potential technosignatures by availing ourselves of recent cognate research in biosignatures. We demonstrate that ideal technosignatures must not only have low risk of stemming from false positives but also evince sufficiently high prior probability of existence. Given the inherent difficulties with estimating the latter, we highlight a few alternative metrics drawn from diagnostic testing such as the Youden index that bypass the requirement of explicitly calculating the prior. We apply the models (Bayesian or otherwise) to a select few technosignature candidates and show that artificial electromagnetic signals, chlorofluorocarbons, and artifacts perform well on this front. While these results may be along expected lines, we suggest that identifying and developing suitable approaches to further evaluate technosignature candidates is of considerable importance.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%