Statistical interpretation of DNA evidence

Gettinby, G.; Peterson, M. J.; Watson, Nigel

doi:10.1016/s0015-7368(93)73017-0

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…('Pathfinder') in pathology, and concluded that Bayes' theorem was predictable and guaranteed the mimimal overall error, though it did not cope well where outcomes were not mutually exclusive. The use of classical probability statements in relation to DNA evidence has been considered by Gettinby et al, 13 who concluded that while useful indications can be obtained using pure probabilities based upon population frequencies, a more robust measure of uncertainty is obtained from a Bayesian treatment. The applications (and misapplications) of Bayes' theorem in forensic science, in general, 14,15 and blood typing 16 and glass refractive index comparison, in particular, 17 have been reviewed in detail.…”

Section: Candidates For 'Identification Certainty'mentioning

confidence: 99%

PerspectiveQuantifying uncertainty in qualitative analysis

Ellison¹,

Gregory²

1998

Analyst

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The feasibility of adopting a consistent approach to the expression of uncertainties relating to identification is discussed. It is argued that qualitative analysis can be viewed as a classification problem, that it is at least as important as quantitative analysis and that inferences drawn from qualitative tests should take relevant uncertainties into account. A brief review of systems of reasoning under uncertainty is presented, and it is concluded that Bayes' theorem provides the most suitable framework, providing for combination of separate items of evidence and implicitly allowing for both false positive and false negative probabilities in a single parameter. The chemical significance and practical evaluation of relevant probabilities are considered, and the applications and reporting of 'identification certainty' figures are discussed.

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Section: Candidates For 'Identification Certainty'mentioning

confidence: 99%