Statistical downscaling of GRACE TWSA estimates to a 1-km spatial resolution for a local-scale surveillance of flooding potential

Khorrami, Behnam; Pirasteh, Saied; Ali, Shoaib; Sahin, Onur Gungor; Vaheddoost, Babak

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129929

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…The Kizilirmak River which has a length of 1355 km is the longest and spills its water to the Black Sea. It has been reported by Khorrami et al (2023a) and Khorrami et al (2023b) that the mean annual precipitation and temperature are about 461mm and 10.5 • C , respectively, and while in internal parts, semiarid climatic type is seen, and the coastal regions near the Black Sea have humid-to-semi-humid climatic conditions. In this study, precipitation data from 17 stations have been taken from the General Directorate of Meteorology of Türkiye.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 93%

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Robleh,

Yuce,

Esit

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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Drought, a major phenomenon impacting water resources, viability, sustainability, and the economy, has been one of the most important hydrological concerns. In the literature, it has been classified into four groups that are meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Meteorological drought expresses the precipitation deficits when they are significantly below those recorded normal times. In this study, using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and mean monthly precipitation records of 17 stations which have been obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology of Türkiye, a drought monitoring analysis has been conducted for Kızılırmak Basin, which is the second largest water basin of the country and water source of many provinces allowing for the time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months considering the cases of “dry” (SPI ≤ − 1.5) and “wet” (SPI ≥ 1.5). To detect the possible trends in two categories of Severe and Extreme Drought, SED (SPI ≤ − 1.5), and Severe and Extreme Wet, SEW (SPI ≥ 1.5) of all time scales, a developed form of innovative trend analysis (ITA) is performed by adding two vertical lines. In addition, a traditional the Mann–Kendall test is applied to the SPI series. The findings indicate that dry occurrences tend to outnumber wet occurrences across various time scales. Analysis reveals that a significant majority of results across all time scales exhibit a consistent trend (89%), with a notable increase in the SEW category (62.74%) and a decrease in the SED category (60.78%). Mann–Kendall analysis demonstrates that 67% of the observed trends show a decrease, while 33% show an increase across all time scales.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 93%

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Robleh,

Yuce,

Esit

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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“…However, the challenging point is that the resulting indicators have the same spatial and temporal (monthly) characteristics as those of GRACE and GRACE‐FO data, making them unsuitable for operational drought monitoring on regional to local scales (Li & Rodell, 2021). Although the GRACE data are more suitable for large‐scale hydrological applications due to their coarse resolution, recent developments in downscaling techniques make GRACE data suitable to assess the local scale variations in water storage in some studies (e.g., Ali et al, 2021; Ali, Liu, et al, 2022; Arshad et al, 2022; Gerdener et al, 2020; Gyawali et al, 2022; Jyolsna et al, 2021; Khorrami et al, 2021; Khorrami, Pirasteh, Ali, et al, 2023; Seo & Lee, 2019; Yin et al, 2022). However, the majority of the downscaling practices have so far focused on medium‐resolution (

25 km \times 25 km

) analysis because of the limitations of fine‐resolution hydrological inputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An appraisal of the local‐scale spatio‐temporal variations of drought based on the integrated GRACE/GRACE‐FO observations and fine‐resolution FLDAS model

Khorrami,

Ali,

Gündüz

2023

Hydrological Processes

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The gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) observations have so far been utilized to detect and trace the variations of hydrological extremes worldwide. However, applying the coarse resolution GRACE estimates for local‐scale analysis remains a big challenge. In this study, a new version of the fine resolution (1 km) Famine early warning systems network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) model data was integrated into a machine learning model along with the GRACE data to evaluate the subbasin‐scale variations of water storage, and drought. With a correlation of and a root mean square error (RMSE) of of its results, the downscaling model turned out to be very successful in modelling the finer resolution variations of TWSA. The water storage deficit (WSD) and Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI) were used to determine the episodes and severity of drought events. Accordingly, two severe droughts (January 2008 to March 2009 and September 2019 to December 2020) were discerned in the Kizilirmak Basin (KB) located in Central Türkiye. The characterization of droughts was evaluated based on WSDI, scPDSI, and model‐based drought indices of the soil moisture storage percentile (SMSP) and groundwater storage percentile (GWSP). The results indicated discrepancies in the drought classes based on different indices. However, the WSDI turned out to be more correlated with GWSP, suggesting its high ability to monitor groundwater droughts as well.

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Innovative Drought Classification Matrix and Acceptable Time Period for Temporal Drought Evaluation

Abu Arra,

Şişman

2024

Water Resour Manage

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Evaluating drought is paramount in water resources management and drought mitigation plans. Drought indices are essential tools in this evaluation, which mainly depends on the time period of the original datasets. Investigating the effects of time periods is critical for a comprehensive understanding and evaluation of drought. Also, It holds particular significance for regions facing data availability challenges. The existing literature reveals a gap in drought assessment and comparison analysis using conventional methods based on drought indices only. This research proposes an innovative drought classification matrix to compare drought indices and spatial and temporal scenarios; the proposed matrix depends on any drought classification for comparison procedure. Furthermore, it aims to investigate the differences between several time period scenarios based on the proposed matrix and several statistical metrics (R2, CC, RMSE, HH, and RB) and determine the acceptable/minimum time period. The application of the proposed matrix and selection of an acceptable/minimum time period is presented to three different climates: Durham station in the United Kingdom, Florya station in Türkiye, and Karapinar station in Türkiye. The results show that the time period scenarios are able to catch the reference time period (RTP) scenario reasonably, with strong correlation and negative relative bias. The 10-year time period is sufficient as an acceptable/minimum time period for short timescales, such as meteorological drought. Conversely, for longer timescales, such as hydrological drought, a 20-year time period is the acceptable/minimum time period. The proposed matrix demonstrates a robust and powerful framework for comparison, making it applicable to various drought assessment scenarios globally.

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Statistical downscaling of GRACE TWSA estimates to a 1-km spatial resolution for a local-scale surveillance of flooding potential

Cited by 11 publications

References 64 publications

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

An appraisal of the local‐scale spatio‐temporal variations of drought based on the integrated GRACE/GRACE‐FO observations and fine‐resolution FLDAS model

Innovative Drought Classification Matrix and Acceptable Time Period for Temporal Drought Evaluation

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