Statistical assessment of rainfall variability and trends in northeastern Algeria

Abstract

In the present study, time series for annual, monthly rainfall and number of rainy days per year were analysed to quantify spatial variability and temporal trends for 22 rainfall stations distributed in northeastern Algeria for the period 1978–2010. The Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to assess the significance and magnitude of the trend. The results showed that precipitation decreases spatially from North to South and from East to West. The application of the Mann–Kendall test (for 0.05% threshold) to the time series data showed that for annual precipitation, no station showed statistically significant trends, unlike the number of rainy days, where there was a significant negative trend in four stations (Jijel, Constantine, Oum El Bouaghi and Tébessa). For the monthly time series, significant positive trends were observed during the months of September in the coastal stations and July for the plateaus and southern Saharan Atlas stations, while significant negative trends were recorded during the months of February and March for the stations of the extreme East in the study area. These results revealed that for the period analysed, there was no significant climate change in northeastern Algeria but there is a seasonal delay having important agroecological implications.

Journal of Water and Land Development

“…That is why at national and international levels studies have been carried out in different regions such as Manizales (Colombia) [CORTÉS 2010], Algeria [MERNIZ et al 2019], North Pacific region of Mexico [GARCÍA, CRUZ 2009], Delmarva Peninsula (USA) [TOKAY et al 2014], India [DEY, MUJUMDAR 2019;WARWADE et al 2018] and Greece [MARKONIS et al 2017], where the importance and implications of studying and knowing the variability of rainfall have been pointed out.…”

Rainfall Trend Analysis of Baitarani River Sub-Basin, Odisha.

“…Maurya et al (2016) have analyzed variability for Middle Tapi Basin using four methods namely Mann Kendall test, Sen's estimator of Slope, Innovative trend analysis and Rainfall variability index developed by L'Hote et al, 2002. Statistical assessment of rainfall trend and variability using Mann Kendall and Sen's slope in Northeastern Algeria is studied by Merniz et al (2019). Linear Regression Model to examine the variability, trend and predict the rainfall patterns was studied by Rahman, 2017.…”