Statistical analysis of the Listeria Monocytogenes EU‐wide baseline survey in certain ready‐to‐eat foods Part B: analysis of factors related to the prevalence of Listeria Monocytogenes, predictive models for the microbial growth and for compliance with food safety criteria

Rakhmawati, T.W.; Nysen, Ruth; Aerts, Marc

doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2014.en-606

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…In conclusion, the results presented in this section represent only a subsection of the terms included in the original multivariable models as they appear in the EFSA () report and have also been statistically adjusted for all other terms that were included in those models. The complete models, as well as additional analyses, are presented in EFSA () and in the External Scientific Report (Rakhmawati et al., ).…”

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready‐to‐eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU

Ricci¹,

Allende²,

Bolton³

et al. 2018

EFS2

221

218

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Food safety criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) foods have been applied from 2006 onwards (Commission Regulation (EC) 2073/2005. Still, human invasive listeriosis was reported to increase over the period [2009][2010][2011][2012][2013] in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). Time series analysis for the 2008-2015 period in the EU/EEA indicated an increasing trend of the monthly notified incidence rate of confirmed human invasive listeriosis of the over 75 age groups and female age group between 25 and 44 years old (probably related to pregnancies). A conceptual model was used to identify factors in the food chain as potential drivers for L. monocytogenes contamination of RTE foods and listeriosis. Factors were related to the host (i. population size of the elderly and/or susceptible people; ii. underlying condition rate), the food (iii. L. monocytogenes prevalence in RTE food at retail; iv. L. monocytogenes concentration in RTE food at retail; v. storage conditions after retail; vi. consumption), the national surveillance systems (vii. improved surveillance), and/or the bacterium (viii. virulence). Factors considered likely to be responsible for the increasing trend in cases are the increased population size of the elderly and susceptible population except for the 25-44 female age group. For the increased incidence rates and cases, the likely factor is the increased proportion of susceptible persons in the age groups over 45 years old for both genders. Quantitative modelling suggests that more than 90% of invasive listeriosis is caused by ingestion of RTE food containing > 2,000 colony forming units (CFU)/g, and that one-third of cases are due to growth in the consumer phase. Awareness should be increased among stakeholders, especially in relation to susceptible risk groups. Innovative methodologies including whole genome sequencing (WGS) for strain identification and monitoring of trends are recommended. Acknowledgements: The Panel wishes to thank the hearing experts: Andrew Hart and Sophie Roussel for the support provided to this scientific output. The Panel also wishes to thank the consortia of the three outsourcing activities under 'Closing gaps for performing a risk assessment on L. monocytogenes in RTE foods' for their collaboration. In addition, R egis Pouillot is thanked for sharing the dose response model as described in Pouillot et al. (2015). Also the epidemiologists and microbiologists of the nominated public health contact points for listeriosis and Listeria isolates in the European Food-and Waterborne Diseases and Zoonoses network (FWD-Net) are thanked for replying to the questionnaire related to the surveillance of listeriosis.

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Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready‐to‐eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU

Ricci¹,

Allende²,

Bolton³

et al. 2018

EFS2

221

218

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“…Descriptive analysis concerning the factors appearing in the final models for both outcome variables for fish and meat samples, can be found in Appendix B; further descriptions of the fish and meat samples can be found in the External Report (Rakhmawati et al, 2014).…”

Section: Descriptive Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An External Scientific Report prepared and submitted to EFSA by an EFSA contractor (later referred to as the External Report) (Rakhmawati et al, 2014) reports on the analysis of factors related to the prevalence of L. monocytogenes-contaminated foods and to the proportion of samples with counts exceeding 100 colony forming units (cfu)/g, as well as on the development and application of predictive models for the microbial growth of L. monocytogenes and for compliance with L. monocytogenes food safety criteria in foods. Therefore, this report might usefully be read in parallel with that External Report.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the baseline survey on the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in certain ready‐to‐eat foods in the EU, 2010–2011 Part B: analysis of factors related to prevalence and exploring compliance

2014

EFS2

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A European Union‐wide baseline survey on Listeria monocytogenes was carried out in 2010 and 2011. Packaged (not frozen) hot or cold smoked or gravad fish, soft or semi‐soft cheeses (excluding fresh cheeses) and packaged heat‐treated meat products were sampled in 26 European Union Member States and in one country not belonging to the European Union. Multiple‐factor analysis (Generalized Estimating Equations) was used to investigate the statistical association between several factors on which information was gathered during the baseline survey, and two outcomes: prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes and proportion of samples with counts exceeding 100 cfu/g, in the surveyed fish and meat products (no analysis is presented for cheese samples, owing to the small number of contaminated samples). Sparseness issues led to instability of the effect estimates for some of the factors. For fish samples, factors that exhibited a stable association with at least one of the two outcomes were ‘subtype of the fish product’ (factor related to the type of processing), ‘Number of antimicrobial preservatives and/or acidity regulators’ and ′Possible slicing′. For meat products, the corresponding factors were ′Type of the meat product′, ′Animal species of the origin of the meat product′, ′Possible slicing′ and ′Remaining shelf‐life′ (days between sampling and ′Use by date′). Furthermore, a statistical model was developed that allowed the use of estimates of the proportion of samples with an L. monocytogenes count > 100 cfu/g obtained from a single‐unit sample survey of a population of RTE foods, in order to estimate the probability that if a five‐unit sample had been taken from the same population, no individual unit, out of n = 5 units constituting the sample, would have exceeded the level of 100 cfu/g. The model was applied using data from the baseline survey for fish, cheese and meat products, at the end of shelf‐life.

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Listeriosis en el embarazo

Raimond

Bonneau

Gábriel

2020

EMC - Ginecología-Obstetricia

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Statistical analysis of the Listeria Monocytogenes EU‐wide baseline survey in certain ready‐to‐eat foods Part B: analysis of factors related to the prevalence of Listeria Monocytogenes, predictive models for the microbial growth and for compliance with food safety criteria

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready‐to‐eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready‐to‐eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU

Analysis of the baseline survey on the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in certain ready‐to‐eat foods in the EU, 2010–2011 Part B: analysis of factors related to prevalence and exploring compliance

Listeriosis en el embarazo

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