Statistical analysis of the 2010<i>M</i><sub>W</sub>7.1 Darfield Earthquake aftershock sequence

Shcherbakov, R.; Nguyen, Marilyn L.; Quigley, Mark

doi:10.1080/00288306.2012.676556

Cited by 28 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…Following the method described in Stirling and Zúñiga (), we apply the rates of CES seismicity to a 20,000‐year time period (the minimum expected recurrence interval range of GF surface rupturing earthquakes (20–30 kyr; Hornblow et al, ) assuming no future aftershocks and no pre‐Darfield seismicity (Figure b; CES seismicity). Average annual rates of less than three M L = 3.6 earthquakes averaged over the 1 January 2016 to 31 May 2017 window are still 84 to 8 times greater than annual rates from the pre‐Darfield seismicity model (in accordance with Omori's law following the Darfield earthquake and large aftershocks; Gerstenberger et al, ; Quigley & Forte, ; Shcherbakov et al, ), suggesting that the CES aftershock sequence is still ongoing.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Several studies have analyzed the magnitude‐frequency distribution of the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES; e.g., Quigley & Forte, ; Quigley et al, ; Shcherbakov et al, ). Most recently, Stirling and Zúñiga () used seismic data (GeoNet earthquake catalogue; September 2010 to April 2016; M w ≥ 4.0) and geological data (palaeoseismic recurrence interval of 20–30 kyr on the GF, as determined by Hornblow et al, ) to describe the magnitude‐frequency distribution of the entire CES area as a G‐R relationship and the GF area as best represented by characteristic earthquake behavior (Stirling & Zúñiga, ).…”

Section: Darfield Earthquakementioning

confidence: 99%

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Physical and Statistical Behavior of Multifault Earthquakes: Darfield Earthquake Case Study, New Zealand

et al. 2019

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We use Coulomb stress change (CSC) analyses and seismicity data to model the physical and statistical behavior of the multifault source of the 4 September 2010 M w 7.1 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand. Geodetic and seismologic data indicate this earthquake initiated on a severely misoriented reverse fault and propagated across a structurally complex fault network including optimally oriented faults. The observed rupture sequence is most successfully modeled if maximum CSC imposed by rupture of the hypocentral fault on to receiver faults exceeds theoretical threshold values of 1 to 5 MPa that are assigned based on fault slip tendency and stress drop analyses. CSC modeling using the same criteria but initiating the earthquake on other faults in the network results in a multifault rupture cascade for five of seven scenarios. Analysis of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions indicates that a Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution for the near-source region cannot be rejected in favor of a characteristic earthquake distribution. However, characteristic behavior is more favored probabilistically because ruptures initiating on individual source faults in the system are statistically more likely to cascade into multifault ruptures with larger amalgamated M w (M w max = 7.1) than to remain confined to the hypocentral source fault (M w = 6.3 to 6.8). Our favored hypothesis is that system rupture behavior is regulated by misoriented faults that occupy critical geometric positions within the network, as previously proposed for the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in Baja California. Other fault networks globally may exhibit similar physical and statistical behaviors.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Darfield Earthquakementioning

confidence: 99%

Physical and Statistical Behavior of Multifault Earthquakes: Darfield Earthquake Case Study, New Zealand

et al. 2019

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“…P indicates how fast the aftershock rate decays with time and has a value close to 1.0 [6]. P-value varies between 0.6 and 1.8 [16], or changes from 0.5 to 1.8 [17]. P-value changes may be related to the tectonic condition of the region such as structural heterogeneity, stress and temperature or the crustal heat flow in the source volume [6] [15].…”

Section: Statistical Properties Of Aftershocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Properties of Aftershocks for Ahar-Varzeghan Twin Earthquakes on 11 August 2012, NW Iran, and Investigation of Seismicity of North Tabriz Fault

Farahani¹

2018

IJG

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Two earthquakes occurred on 11 August 2012 in East Azerbaijan province, NW Iran with Mw 6.3 at 12:23:15.9 and Mw 6.1; 11 minutes after the first shock at 12:34:34.8 GMT time. In this study, we concentrated on the properties of the aftershock sequences in a duration of 7.5-month time-period data after the main shocks, recorded by Broadband Iranian Network (BIN). We obtained p, c and K parameters with the maximum likelihood method and the occurrence rate was modeled by the modified Omori formula. Besides, we showed that aftershocks of the aftershock in 7 Nov. 2012 (M = 5.6) also decay according to the modified Omori law. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of b-values before and after the twin earthquakes with Mw 6.3 and Mw 6.1 approximately 20 km around North Tabriz Fault (NTF) in the region from 1996 to 2013 using Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC). We believed that a research of the past 17 years has clearly established that spatial b-value changes and seismicity rate are highly significant and meaningful. Moreover, our research led to a warning for a probable strong motion along NTF for the coming couple of years.

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“…Results for several prominent earthquakes with welldocumented aftershock sequences are given in Table 1 (Nanjo et al, 2007;Shcherbakov et al, 2012Shcherbakov et al, , 2013b. In terms of magnitude, they range from the m ¼ 9.1 Sumatra earthquake to the m ¼ 6.0 Parkfield earthquake.…”

Section: The Omori Lawmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity and Earthquakes

Turcotte

Shcherbakov

Rundle

2015

Treatise on Geophysics

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Statistical analysis of the 2010M_W7.1 Darfield Earthquake aftershock sequence

Cited by 28 publications

References 22 publications

Physical and Statistical Behavior of Multifault Earthquakes: Darfield Earthquake Case Study, New Zealand

Physical and Statistical Behavior of Multifault Earthquakes: Darfield Earthquake Case Study, New Zealand

Statistical Properties of Aftershocks for Ahar-Varzeghan Twin Earthquakes on 11 August 2012, NW Iran, and Investigation of Seismicity of North Tabriz Fault

Complexity and Earthquakes

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Statistical analysis of the 2010MW7.1 Darfield Earthquake aftershock sequence

Cited by 28 publications

References 22 publications

Physical and Statistical Behavior of Multifault Earthquakes: Darfield Earthquake Case Study, New Zealand

Physical and Statistical Behavior of Multifault Earthquakes: Darfield Earthquake Case Study, New Zealand

Statistical Properties of Aftershocks for Ahar-Varzeghan Twin Earthquakes on 11 August 2012, NW Iran, and Investigation of Seismicity of North Tabriz Fault

Complexity and Earthquakes

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Statistical analysis of the 2010M_W7.1 Darfield Earthquake aftershock sequence