Statistical Analysis of Small Satellite Reliability: 1990-2019

Perumal, Raja Pandi; Voos, Holger; Vedova, Florio Dalla; Moser, Hubert Anton

doi:10.2514/6.2021-3688

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The shape and scale parameter of Weibull distribution from data is generated by either a graphical method (linear regression) or maximum likelihood estimation. Perumal et al (2021) compare graphical method and MLE and found that using MLE can generate more accurate Weibull model than graphical method. This subsection provides a brief review of graphical method and maximum likelihood estimation.…”

Section: 2weibull Plot and Satellite Reliabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar to the R 2 for graphical method and Akaike information criterion (AIC) is the goodness-of-fit indicator for maximum likelihood estimation. Lower AIC indicates better-fit model (Perumal et al, 2021).…”

Section: 12maximum Likelihood Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The correlation between satellite mass and satellite reliability has been explored based on the statistical analysis method (Castet and Saleh, 2009;Dubos et al, 2010;Guo et al, 2014). Also, investing failure of specific subsystems is another major trend in reliability analysis (Castet and Saleh, 2009;Kim et al, 2012;Langer and Bouwmeester, 2016;Perumal et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Small Satellite Reliability

Xu,

Brito,

Young

et al. 2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

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Smaller launching systems and highly reliable components have become dominant demand in the small satellite sector. This notwithstanding small satellites have been the cause of the majority of space debris. It is therefore correct to ask, what is the survivability of small satellites? To address this question a small satellite database was constructed based on 4567 small satellites deployed from 1990 to 2022. All satellites are restricted with a launch mass of no more than 500kg. In this paper, we present the survival distributions for different types of satellites based on satellite mass category, standard compliance and subsystem contribution. Our findings show that after the successful launch, microsatellites and minisatellites are equally reliable within the first 20 years on-orbit, with approximately a 98% reliability rate. Compared to microsatellites and minisatellites, picosatellites and nanosatellites exhibit high infant mortality and short lifetimes, which is no more than 10 years. We have found that the small satellite designed based on ECSS (European Cooperation for Space Standardization) and NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) standards have a relatively higher reliability rate than that of satellites that comply with JAXA and other standards. With respect to subsystem behaviour, the communication system is the major contributor to small satellite failure, thus designers should pay more attention to addressing no signal, and software disconnection-related problems.

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Section: 2weibull Plot and Satellite Reliabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 12maximum Likelihood Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Small Satellite Reliability

Xu,

Brito,

Young

et al. 2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In [2], the authors used the Kaplan-Meyer estimate to calculate nonparametric reliability functions.…”

Section: The State Of Development Of Orientation Detection Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achievements and prospects of creating systems for determining the orientation of small space satellite

Alipbayev,

Saurova

2022

MGS

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Advances in the development of small satellites, combined with the availability of low-cost launches, have led to an increase in the number of space flights. As space becomes more accessible than ever before, new and innovative missions are emerging. A set of achievements in the field of automatic systems, control system devices, computer systems, control system executive bodies, methods and methods of control system integration, which made it possible to create multi-purpose, multi-mode systems with a long active life cycle, systems with maximum autonomy and automation of control processes, is shown. This article presents the achievements and prospects of spacecraft control systems over the past three decades. The problematic issues of increasing the accuracy of orientation and stabilization are considered.

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“…Lower risk acceptance and lack of robust system-level testing have contributed to a high failure rate of CubeSat missions with half of the first 100 CubeSats launched by University teams being unsuccessful 8 , 9 . The Educational Irish Research Satellite-1 (EIRSAT-1) mission is complex with three in-house developed payloads and an antenna deployment mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development, description, and validation of the operations manual for EIRSAT-1, a 2U CubeSat with a gamma-ray burst detector

Dunwoody,

Doyle,

Murphy

et al. 2023

J. Astron. Telesc. Instrum. Syst.

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CubeSats provide opportunities for science and technology demonstration missions with low-cost solutions and short project timescales, in particular, for studying gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) in the multi-messenger era. A robust operations strategy for scientific CubeSat projects is key to optimizing the results obtained from the experimental instruments. The Educational Irish Research Satellite-1 (EIRSAT-1) is a 2U CubeSat with three payloads, including a bespoke gamma-ray detector, gamma-ray module (GMOD), developed in-house for the detection of GRBs. The detection and reporting of GRB triggers to the scientific community complicates and drives the mission operational strategy. The operational procedures developed for commissioning and operating GMOD are detailed. The successful operation of EIRSAT-1 will facilitate the detection of ∼15 GRBs∕year in low Earth orbit. To increase the likelihood of mission success, the project is following a prototype model philosophy, building, and testing, both an engineering qualification model (EQM) and flight model. The EIRSAT-1 operations manual is the document that will instruct operators in commanding the spacecraft correctly and efficiently throughout the mission lifetime. The operations manual must be refined in parallel to payload development. This two-model philosophy has provided time for the early development of the EIRSAT-1 operations manual with the EQM. The EIRSAT-1 operations manual has undergone incremental updates based on feedback from operational development tests (ODTs), and a version with 35 procedures was frozen prior to the month-long EQM mission test (MT). Specifically, the objective of our work is to validate and refine the operations manual using the EQM MT process. Although the ODTs were effective preparation, the MT process highlighted issues, such as procedures operators found convoluted, and scenarios not yet considered during the initial development stages. Two new procedures were identified, 8 procedures required major updates, 15 required minor updates, and the remaining 12 required no improvements after the MT. The validation process facilitated operator training in mission representative conditions, such as GRB triggering data downlink with GMOD, and the major lessons learned during the development and validation process are presented.

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Statistical Analysis of Small Satellite Reliability: 1990-2019

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Small Satellite Reliability

Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Small Satellite Reliability

Achievements and prospects of creating systems for determining the orientation of small space satellite

Development, description, and validation of the operations manual for EIRSAT-1, a 2U CubeSat with a gamma-ray burst detector

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