Statistical Analysis of Photovoltaic and Wind Power Generation in Germany

Ibrahim, Noor ‘Adilah

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3080152

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…At the beginning of 2018, the total installed capacity of Germany's wind power plants was 56.2 GW, of which the capacity of mainland wind farms reached 50.777 GW. In 2016, the share of wind power in total electricity consumption in Germany was 13.2%, significantly ahead of bio-and hydro-power (Ibrahim, 2017;Sow et al, 2019).…”

Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind Power: Current State and Perspectives

Linnik

Voronova²,

Pavlyuk

et al. 2020

IJEEP

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Due to the depletion of resources for traditional energy, as well as due to the gradual abandonment of nuclear power in a number of countries, the world pays great attention to energy conservation and energy efficiency, one of the main sources of which is renewable energy, which includes wind energy. Wind power is the most developed renewable energy industry (excluding hydro), which affects its economic characteristics. Thus, onshore wind power plants are characterized by one of the lowest indicators of the cost of electricity production among alternative types of generation. However, offshore wind power plants are still inferior to some types of renewable energy sources and are twice the level of traditional thermal power plants. In this article, the authors consider the state and prospects of development of the world wind energy. The distribution of installed capacity of wind power plants by regions of the world is analyzed and the shares of countries in the total installed capacity are determined. The leading countries were identified as well as the reasons for the rapid growth of wind generation in these countries along with the measures of state support. The state and prospects of wind power development in Russia are considered, and it is also noted that the Russian Federation has significant potential in the field of wind power development, which makes it possible to make optimistic forecasts regarding the provision of electricity to remote areas of Russia. The technical electric power potential of wind energy is about 17.1 TW/year, which is an order of magnitude higher than the amount of electricity generated by all power plants in the country in 2018. The scientific increment is to identify the key problems facing the domestic wind power industry.

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Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind Power: Current State and Perspectives

Linnik

Voronova²,

Pavlyuk

et al. 2020

IJEEP

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“…This paper of course is not the first one to consider time series models for longer term PV yields. Models of this kind are already used in Wagner (2014), Veraart and Zdanowicz (2015), Ibrahim (2017) and Benth and Ibrahim (2017), to mention a few. All of them put a special focus on daily mean or maximum PV yields and only use very simple deterministic approaches to obtain hourly PV yields.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A copula-based time series model for global horizontal irradiation

Müller¹,

Reuber²

2020

Preprint

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The increasing importance of solar power for electricity generation leads to an increasing demand for probabilistic forecasting of local and aggregated PV yields. In this paper we use an indirect modeling approach for hourly medium to long term local PV yields based on publicly available irradiation data. We suggest a time series model for global horizontal irradiation for which it is easy to generate an arbitrary number of scenarios and thus allows for multivariate probabilistic forecasts for arbitrary time horizons. In contrast to many simplified models that have been considered in the literature so far it features several important stylized facts. Sharp time dependent lower and upper bounds of global horizontal irradiations are estimated that improve the often used physical bounds. The parameters of the beta distributed marginals of the transformed data are allowed to be time dependent. A copula-based time series model is introduced for the hourly and daily dependence structure based on a simple graphical structure known from the theory of vine copulas. Non-Gaussian copulas like Gumbel and BB1 copulas are used that allow for the important feature of so-called tail dependence. Evaluation methods like the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), the energy score (ES) and the variogram score (VS) are used to compare the power of the model for multivariate probabilistic forecasting with other models used in the literature showing that our model outperforms other models in many respects.

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Modelling of Intraday Photovoltaic Power Production

Ibrahim

2018

SSRN Journal

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Statistical Analysis of Photovoltaic and Wind Power Generation in Germany

Cited by 3 publications

References 26 publications

Wind Power: Current State and Perspectives

Wind Power: Current State and Perspectives

A copula-based time series model for global horizontal irradiation

Modelling of Intraday Photovoltaic Power Production

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