Statistical Analysis of Marine Accidents in the Strait of İstanbul Using Chi-Square Test

Abstract

The Turkish Straits which comprise the Strait of İstanbul, the Strait of Çanakkale and the Sea of Marmara connect the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas and the Black Sea. The Straits are one of the most hazardous and crowded waterways in the world. The Straits are important from the point of international politics and commerce. The aim of the study is to analyse the accidents that occurred in the Strait of İstanbul from the implementation of the Maritime Traffic Regulations for the Turkish Straits and the Marmara Region in 1994 until 2019 using frequency distribution, Chi Square) and Cramer's V Tests. The main findings of the study have given as follows; the cargo ships were the most involved in the accident; accidents are mostly collision and respectively grounding; the most accident has been occurred in the hours 20:00-24:00, main reason of accidents is human error and a total of 71.5% of the ships involved in the accident have not taken a pilot in the Strait of İstanbul. There is a statistically significant relationship between accident type and accident year; between accident type and the ship types involved in the accident and between accident type and whether the ship involved in the accident had a pilot; relationship between ship type involved in the accident and whether to take a pilot or not. At the conclusion of the study suggestions are proposed to provide safety of environment and navigation in the Strait of İstanbul.

A Statistical Analysis of Ship Accidents (1990–2020) Focusing on Collision, Grounding, Hull Failure, and Resulting Hull Damage

“…In this Figure, crew's operational mistakes emerge as the dominant cause of accidents, occurring at a frequency of about 50%. It is worth noting that, according to N.J. Ece [20], collision and grounding accidents are primarily caused by human error, and a statistical correlation between the type, the cause and the zone of the accident was deduced. Additionally, a similar analysis made by J. Deng et al [25] concluded that the primary cause of maritime incidents can be attributed to human factors.…”

“…N.J. Ece [20] investigated accidents that occurred in the Strait of Istanbul (connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara) during the "right-side up" scheme period from 1982 to 2010, using statistical methods such as frequency distribution and chi-square (χ 2 ) analysis. The results concluded that the most frequent type of incident was collisions, followed by groundings; both were primarily caused by human error.…”

“…The results concluded that the most frequent type of incident was collisions, followed by groundings; both were primarily caused by human error. Moreover, it was observed that there existed a statistical correlation between the type, the cause, and the zone of the accident [20].…”