State Poverty Rates: Do the New Welfare Policies Make a Difference?

Abstract

This article uses four models to identify the best predictors of state poverty levels and changes in state poverty rates since the implementation of welfare reform. The policy decisions based on the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) by the states are tested along with more traditional variables identified in the literature. Using several measures of state poverty, the analysis finds that those states with the lowest poverty rates are those with the healthiest economies, and the most generous state spending on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). States with the highest percentage of their TANF rolls made up of black citizens tend to have the highest rates of poverty. Initial poverty rates are found to be important in that states with higher initial poverty levels are capable of generating a larger reduction in poverty than states with lower initial rates. With the exception of limited evidence on sanctions, none of the PRWORA-based policies were found to have any effect on poverty rates. Copyright 2006 by The Policy Studies Organization.

No Race in Any Direction: State Welfare and Income Regimes

“…The consequences are significant. States that score highest on welfare and income support effort have lower levels of poverty (Rodgers & Payne, 2007; Rodgers et al., 2006).…”

“…The simple correlation between the summary score and poverty rates in the states in 2005 is −0.4855 ( p < 0.0003). Those states with higher scores on welfare effort suffer significantly less poverty (Rodgers et al., 2006).…”

Child Poverty in the American States: The Impact of Welfare Reform, Economics, and Demographics

“…The literature documents that state spending on TANF varies greatly (Rodgers, 2005c; Rodgers & Tedin, 2006). As noted above, the literature also documents that jurisdictions in the United States and in many other nations that have the most generous support systems generally have fewer poor citizens (Brady, 2005; Fritzell & Ritakallio, 2004; Garfinkel, Rainwater, & Smeeding, 2004; Hanratty & Blank, 1992; Moller, Huber, Stephens, Bradley, & Nielsen, 2003; Rainwater & Smeeding, 2003; Rodgers et al., 2006; Smeeding, 2004). While spending is built into the Meyer et al.…”

“…The literature has documented a great deal of variation in the policy choices that states have made to implement welfare reform. (Gais & Weaver, 2002; Mead, 2004; Mettler, 2000; Meyers, Gornick, & Peck, 2002; Rodgers, Payne, & Chervachidze, 2006; Schram, 1999; Soss, Schram, Varanian, & O'Brien, 2001). States vary, for example, in the generosity of their cash benefits, the percentage of their poor who receive assistance, time limits, sanctioning policies, quality of support services, and earning disregards.…”

“…Because prior research has shown that one of the best predictors of changes in poverty rates over time is the beginning rate, we added each state's child poverty rate in 1994–98 as an independent variable (see Rodgers et al., 2006). This variable turns out to be a consistent predictor of change over time.…”