State of the Climate in 2015

Blunden, Jessica; Arndt, Derek S.

doi:10.1175/2016bamsstateoftheclimate.1

Cited by 185 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The merged GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2A (GSG) total ozone time series (Kiesewetter et al, 2010;Weber et al, 2011Weber et al, , 2016 consists of total ozone data that were retrieved using the University of Bremen weighting function DOAS (WFDOAS) algorithm Weber et al, 2005). The most recent modification was in the GOME-2A data record.…”

Section: Gsgmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

et al. 2018

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Section: Gsgmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

et al. 2018

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“…In addition to significant precipitation deficits, which were driven in part by the strong El Niño in 2015–2016 (Blunden & Arndt, 2016; OCHA, 2015), the Pan‐Caribbean drought occurred in conjunction with some of the highest temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) anomalies observed in the region (Herrera & Ault, 2017). As compared to previous droughts that also occurred during strong El Niño events (e.g., in 1997–1998), the Pan‐Caribbean drought was considerably more severe (Herrera & Ault, 2017), and it affected regions usually associated with wet conditions during El Niño, such as western Cuba (Jury et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

Herrera

Ault

Fasullo

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high‐resolution self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.

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“…Climate change studies and climate monitoring activities have tended to focus on statistical estimates as the primary means for assessing observed OHC change (e.g. [6,42]). ORAs vary in the variety of data inputs, the type of data assimilation scheme, the underlying model physics and imposed model boundary conditions (e.g.…”

Section: Estimates Of Ocean Heating Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconciling Estimates of Ocean Heating and Earth’s Radiation Budget

Palmer

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of review The purpose of this review is to summarise the recent literature and scientific challenges on the topic of reconciling estimates of ocean heating rates with satellite-based monitoring of Earth's radiation budget (ERB), including discussion of the satellite record and in situ ocean observing system. Recent findings State-of-the-art climate model simulations suggest that the global ocean becomes the dominant term the planetary heat budget on annual and longer timescales. Therefore, we expect to see a close correspondence between year-to-year variations in ocean heating rates and satellite measurements of ERB. Recent comparisons of satellite ERB time series and ocean heating rates show a marked improvement over earlier studies in terms of consistency and specification of uncertainties. Contemporary research has also emphasised the utility of these independent data sets for cross validation of the climate record and their fundamental importance for monitoring the rate of climate change. Summary Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have brought about an imbalance in Earth's radiation budget that is driving global climate change. Our primary means for monitoring this energy imbalance is via direct satellite measurements of ERB and through estimates of global ocean heat content (OHC) change. CERES satellite measurements of ERB offer high spatiotemporal resolution and uncertainties on annual time series of order 0.1 Wm -2 but cannot provide absolute monitoring of Earth's energy imbalance due to limitations in sensor calibration. The Argo array of autonomous profiling floats has revolutionised the ocean observing system and our ability to estimate absolute ocean heating rates with current uncertainties estimated to be 0.5/0.1 Wm -2 on annual/ decadal timescales. These ocean observations are essential to "anchor" the time series of ERB and can be used to mitigate satellite sensor drifts. Sustaining these highly complementary elements of the climate observing system is essential for improved understanding of climate variability and change. Improvements in satellite sensor calibration, estimates of total solar irradiance and more comprehensive sampling of the global oceans (e.g. Deep Argo) are key aspects to reducing uncertainties in future observations of Earth's energy imbalance.

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State of the Climate in 2015

Abstract: Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Cited by 185 publications

References 2 publications

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

Reconciling Estimates of Ocean Heating and Earth’s Radiation Budget

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