State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment

Kirchner, Stephen

doi:10.1111/1467-8462.12319

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Several studies have confirmed that EPU has negative effects on firms’ research and investment, employment, consumer behavior, stock market performance, crude oil price, exchange rate, global trade growth, etc. [ 35 – 42 ]. The on-going COVID-19 pandemic raises global economic uncertainty, leading to agricultural trade disruption which raises food prices and reduces food security globally [ 43 , 44 ].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China

Zhang

Brizmohun

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. Stability of agricultural imports directly affects domestic food availability, and hence influences national food security. This study is important to gauge effects of uncertainty resulting from global and domestic economic policy changes on the stability component of food security in China. Though many studies have explored the determinants and consequences of Chinese agricultural trade, research focusing on stability of agricultural imports is lacking. To fill the gap, this study calculates duration length and survival probability of China’s agri-food imports, and estimates effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stability. Results show that trade duration of the agri-food imports is 12.07 months in China. However, 51.69% of disrupted trade relationships would resume after 2 months and 92.68% of temporarily interrupted trade relationships return to the market after 12 months. Empirical estimations show that global EPU has a larger impact on the stability of agricultural imports than Chinese EPU. Although Chinese EPU has heterogeneous effects on imports of different agri-food products in China, global EPU does not. Stabilized domestic food price and improved domestic agricultural productivity would improve stability of the imports significantly. The study concludes that China’s agricultural imports are less dynamic than previous studies claimed. However, EPU significantly erodes the trade stability. To offset negative effects of EPU on the stability, government should pay more attention on stabilizing domestic food price volatility and increasing food productivity, and therefore improve food security in China.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China

Zhang

Brizmohun

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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“…Moreover, economic uncertainty increases the volatility of commodities, meaning that potential uncertainty permanently affects the volatility of commodities, whereas the impact of observable uncertainty is short-lived or even insigni cant (Bakas and Triantafyllou 2018). Furthermore, EPU is also detrimental to nancial stability (Phan et al 2020) and global trade volumes (Kirchner 2019).…”

Section: Economic Policy Uncertainty and Green Technology Innovatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental regulation, economic policy uncertainty, and green technology innovation

Zhang

2021

Clean Techn Environ Policy

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Green technology innovation is imperative to sustainable and environmentally sound economic development and is currently facing increasingly serious environmental threats. However, existing research has overlooked the uncertainties in economic policies. Based on the logical relationship between environmental regulation, economic policy uncertainty, and green technology innovation, this study empirically analyzed the quantitative relationship among these three variables using the xed-effect panel method and provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017 for 30 administrative regions of China. The results show that environmental regulation is positively correlated with green innovation, whereas economic policy uncertainty has a negative in uence on green innovation, thereby regulating the relationship between the remaining two factors. Moreover, considerable regional heterogeneity exists in these causal in uences, i.e., environmental regulation promotes green innovation in the eastern and middle regions but not signi cantly in the west. The uncertainty actively moderates the impact of environmental regulation on green innovation in all regions with an adjustment coe cient of approximately 0.8; however, it inhibits green innovation in different degrees, especially in the eastern and middle regions. Based on empirical results, we conclude that strict and appropriate environmental regulations are necessary and effective in China to encourage green technology innovation, especially in regions with uncertain economic policies.

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“…The economic motivation for each of these variables should be self‐explanatory. The Australian Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is included partly to account for the effect federal elections and political uncertainty might have on confidence, as well as offshore uncertainty, which is highly correlated with domestic policy uncertainty (Kirchner ).…”

Section: A Model Of Consumer Sentimentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sentiment has a surprisingly low elasticity with respect to the Australian Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, although a statistically significant relationship. This likely reflects a recent uptick in measured uncertainty on global concerns that may not have resonated strongly with consumers (Kirchner ). Dwelling values as a measure of housing wealth also have a strong influence on sentiment.…”

Section: A Model Of Consumer Sentimentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Changes in Monetary Policy on Consumer and Business Confidence

Kirchner¹

2020

Australian Economic Review

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This article examines the response of consumer and business confidence to five measures of change in Australian monetary policy. Actual, expected and surprise increases in the official cash rate target and related interest rates are shown to negatively impact consumer sentiment. Business confidence is less affected by increases in the cash rate target, but is negatively affected by an increase in the 90‐day bank accepted bill rate. Tests for model stability and asymmetries in the response of sentiment to increases and decreases in interest rates otherwise find only limited evidence for monetary policy having a perverse signalling effect on sentiment.

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State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment

Cited by 14 publications

References 19 publications

Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China

Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China

Environmental regulation, economic policy uncertainty, and green technology innovation

The Effect of Changes in Monetary Policy on Consumer and Business Confidence

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