State international income position, trade openness, and mass antigovernment protests

Abstract

This research provides a state-level systemic explanation for antigovernment insurgencies. We posit that state international income position influences antigovernment movements, which effect, however, hinges on the level of trade openness. By analyzing 157 states from 1990 through 2018, it is found that for a state having an unclosed market, its internationally relative income level is negatively associated with mass antigovernment protests. This study implies that trade liberalization may exert a context-specific impact on domestic political insurgency, which helps understand why trade liberalization seems to be a reason for mass anti-government movements in some contexts while enhancing a regime in other cases.