State Capacity and Terrorism in the Developing World

Abstract

What are the most influential factors to the rise of terrorist groups in the developing world? From Nigeria to Indonesia, various groups have conducted devastating attacks, against fellow citizens and international visitors. Hendrix and Young (2014) find military capacity may encourage the use of terrorism while bureaucratic measures depress them. Further investigation into underlying catalysts for mobilization is required before we can explain the rise in activity of terrorist organizations in these regions. I expect as measures of military capacity increase that terrorism increases while increases in administrative capacity reduce terrorist activity. I also expect indirect factors such as repressive activity by the state increases terrorism while corrupt and clientelistic behavior in the state has a more complex, suppressing effect on terrorist activity. To test these assumptions I first use a cross-national quantitative analysis to identify significant factors in the relationship between terrorism and state capacity in sixty-five states across Africa and Southeast Asia using several sources of data including the Global Terrorism Database. I then examine four of these significant factors, military capacity, administrative capacity, repression, and corruption in two case study chapters that consider policy changes made after the rise of terrorist activity in West Africa and Southeast Asia. The results are mixed, finding as states increase military and administrative capacity terrorist activity increases which suggests with advances in legal and military capacity in the state comes the potential for repressive tactics and abuse that increases terrorist activity in response. Completing a PhD is a monumental task and not possible without the support of family, great friends and colleagues, and of course my mentor and former advisors. First I thank my parents, Tina Martin and Paul Colegrove for always being there for me as I navigated this process. My graduate student colleagues, particularly Brian Fitzpatrick and Kyle Rogers, were important networks of support both for consultation on the early stages of my dissertation and as friends as well. I also would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee, Erik Herron, Mason Moseley, Robert Duval, and Danielle Davidov, for their service and feedback on the final product. Separately, I cannot see how anyone could complete a PhD without a compassionate and dedicated chair and advisor so special thanks to my friend and mentor Christina Fattore. I would also like to thank Sylvie Henning, my advisor at East Carolina University, for encouraging me to pursue my doctorate after completing my first Master's degree as well as Leanne Powner for her assistance as a dissertation coach for several of the later chapters. I would also be remiss if I did not acknowledge the late Patricia Cunningham III, the PhDiva, who advised me long after her time as my undergraduate advisor at Ohio State ended and as a close friend whom I dearly miss. Without a late night three hour convers...