State and Local Population Projections

Smith, Stanley K.; Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A.

doi:10.1007/0-306-47372-0

Cited by 90 publications

(142 citation statements)

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“…The temporal effects of these characteristics on population change have been well received by demographers. For example, the cohort component method of population forecasting uses information of fertility, mortality, and migration by age-sex-race cohorts in previous time periods (Smith, Tayman, and Swanson 2001).…”

Section: An Integrated Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Framework of Population Change: Influential Factors, Spatial Dynamics, and Temporal Variation

Chi

Ventura

2011

Growth and Change

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Population change has been studied in the fields of human ecology, population geography, environmental sociology, transportation planning, and regional economics, which make unique contributions to theorizing and modeling population change. Drawing upon this diverse literature, we develop an integrated framework for understanding population change in this review paper. The proposed framework is composed of five putative influences (demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, transportation accessibility, natural amenities, and land development) analyzed across three dimensions-these influential factors of population change conditioned by spatial dynamics and temporal variation. We also proposed a practical procedure for tackling the complexity between population change and influential factors. This integrated framework has potential to complement existing population research approaches employed within individual disciplines. P opulation growth (or decline) is an important pursuit in the fields of demography, human ecology, population geography, environmental sociology, transportation planning, and regional economics. These fields adopt different theories to explain, and employ different approaches to model, population change. For example, human ecologists model population change within a holistic human-society-environment framework (Poston and Frisbie 2006). Population geographers are interested in spatial variations of population distribution, density, composition, and growth (Bailey 2005). Regional scientists and transportation planners study population via land use patterns (Boarnet 1997;Cervero 2003). Environmental planners focus on predictions of population change and

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Section: An Integrated Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Framework of Population Change: Influential Factors, Spatial Dynamics, and Temporal Variation

Chi

Ventura

2011

Growth and Change

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“…We estimated the number of Americans who might have been alive, assuming the record mortality regime, in a female-based projection using the cohort component method (Preston et al 2001;Shryock and Siegel 1976;Smith et al 2002). As the first step in this method, we projected forward for each time interval the population that would still be alive at the beginning of the next interval, applying the probabilities of survival from the countries with record life expectancy.…”

Section: Methods and Data Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

Muszyńska

Rau

2009

Population & Development Rev

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Life expectancy at birth in the United States during the twentieth century was lower than in many other highly developed countries. We investigate how this mortality disadvantage in the last 100 years translates into the number of hypothetical lives lost and their sex and age structure. We estimate the hypothetical US population if it had experienced in each decade since 1900 the mortality level of the country with the then highest life expectancy and compare the results to the actual figures in 2000. By 2000, the number of additional people who could have been alive had the mortality levels in the United States been as low as those in countries with the highest life expectancy was 66 million. This number is distributed equally between males and females. Suboptimal mortality at reproductive ages is crucial for the cumulative effect of potential lives lost, resulting from premature deaths of women who could still become first-time mothers or bear additional children. Out of the 66 million additional persons who could have been alive in 2000, 45 million are attributable to those indirect deaths. Although the differences in the composition of the population by sex and age under the two mortality regimes are minor, the majority of people who might have been alive-54 million-were of working age or younger. Copyright (c) 2009 The Population Council, Inc..

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“…The share of growth model, found to produce relatively accurate projections by several researchers, unfortunately possesses an undesirable characteristic (Smith et al, 2001;Hachadoorian et al, 2011). It is revealed when a local area experiences population change in the base period which is of a different sign to that of the State, and the State is then forecast to experience a change of trend.…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forecasts were evaluated in terms of both forecast accuracy and credibility, with credible defined as the avoidance of (i) negative projected populations and (ii) significant constraining to sum to independent State or national populations. Population forecasts can also be evaluated on many other criteria, such as the amount of output detail, conceptual adequacy, production costs, ease of validation, ease of scenario creation, political acceptability, and timeliness, all of which are important (Smith et al, 2001). Nonetheless, forecast accuracy and credibility are especially important and are the focus of this contribution.…”

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confidence: 99%

New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts

Wilson

2014

Population Space and Place

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At the small area scale simple methods for forecasting total populations are often employed because of a lack of data for cohort‐component models, concerns about the reliability of these models for forecasting small population totals, and resource constraints. To date, a select number of authors have assessed the forecast accuracy of several individual, averaged, and composite models. This paper extends this stream of work by evaluating a large number of models on new datasets. The aims of the paper are to examine the performance of (a) 10 individual forecasting models (some of which are well known; others less so); (b) averages of every combination of 2, 3, 4, and 5 of the individual models (627 in total); and (c) composite models based on population size and growth rates (200,000 in total). Do averaged and composite models outperform individual models? Using new small area population datasets, forecasts from 2001 to 2031 were produced for three case study countries, Australia, New Zealand, and England & Wales. Both forecast accuracy and credibility (avoidance of negatives; degree of constraining to state populations) were assessed in 2011; for 2031, just credibility was evaluated. Of the individual models, constant share of growth (positive shares only) and constant share of population performed the best. A small proportion of averaged and composite models outperformed the best individual models in forecast accuracy. Several recommendations for the practice of small area population forecasting are made. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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State and Local Population Projections

Cited by 90 publications

References 0 publications

An Integrated Framework of Population Change: Influential Factors, Spatial Dynamics, and Temporal Variation

An Integrated Framework of Population Change: Influential Factors, Spatial Dynamics, and Temporal Variation

Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts

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