Standard years for large-scale hydrological scenario simulations

Bakker, A.; Hurk, Bart van den; Bessembinder, Janette; Kroon, T.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.11.008

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These extreme weather events expose the vulnerability of society. In hydrology, 'representative standard years' (such as 1976 for Europe 34 The consequences of an event can be put in the context of the vulnerability of society to extremes. Having historic analogues allows these to be considered in much greater detail.…”

Section: ) Description Of Relevant Analogues From Current and Past Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tales of future weather

et al. 2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to the human impact on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach employs ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in an altered climate setting can provide tailored naritives of high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This Tales of Future Weather approach will aid in the interpretation of lower resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides a complementary and more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.

show abstract

Section: ) Description Of Relevant Analogues From Current and Past Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tales of future weather

et al. 2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The probabilistic nature of the key flood producing variables is ignored in PMF (Charalambous et al, 2013). In contrast, scenarios based on climate change are more appropriate than the conventional PMF approach for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change (Bakker et al, 2011;Arnell and Gosling, 2013). This approach provides information on the chance of weather extremes and plausible pictures of possible future climates.…”

Section: Flood Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events to assess the impact of climate change in a large basin with limited data

Amir

Khan

Rasul

et al. 2015

J Flood Risk Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Flood modelling of a large basin like the Fitzroy is a difficult task due to its large catchment size, the long duration of flood events, the non-uniform spatial distribution of rainfall and a lack of required data for modelling purposes. This paper presents a systematic methodology for the flood modelling of the Fitzroy Basin using hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling approach with Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities. This study developed five flood scenarios analysing historical flood events and considering three impacts of climate change: upstream subcatchments flooding, local rainfall fluctuations and sea level rise. A hydrologic model was developed within the wider Fitzroy Basin with the five upstream subcatchments and the upper Fitzroy subcatchment in order to simulate discharge data for these scenarios at the Gap measurement location. An integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic model was developed for the lower Fitzroy subcatchment where output discharges of the hydrologic model were considered as the upstream boundaries. The peak flood levels, peak flow rates and flood inundation durations at Rockhampton city were identified using this integrated model. GIS capabilities were specially used for automatic watershed delineation and river cross-section extraction from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The methodology proposed here is a case study and can be applied to other similar basins or catchments.

show abstract

“…KNMI'06 was based on an assessment and selection of a set of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations used in the preparation of the Fourth IPCC assessment report (AR4; IPCC 2007) (Van Ulden and Van Oldenborgh 2006). In addition, a regional downscaling procedure using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) , statistical downscaling using local observations (e.g., Bakker et al 2011) and regional sea level scenarios (Katsman et al 2008) were constructed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

For the construction of regional climate change scenarios spanning a relevant fraction of the spread in climate model projections, an inventory of major drivers of regional climate change is needed. For the Netherlands, a previous set of regional climate change scenarios was based on the decomposition of local temperature/precipitation changes into components directly linked to the level of global warming, and components related to changes in the regional atmospheric circulation. In this study this decomposition is revisited utilizing the extensive modelling results from the CMIP5 model ensemble in support for the 5th IPCC assessment. Rather than selecting a number of GCMs based on performance metrics or relevant response features, a regression technique was developed to utilize all available model projections. The large number of projections allows a quantification of the separate contributions of emission scenarios, systematic model responses and natural variability to the total likelihood range. Natural variability plays a minor role in modelled differences in the global mean temperature response, but contributes for up to 50 % to the range of mean sea level pressure responses and local precipitation. Using key indicators (''steering variables'') for the temperature and circulation response, the range in local seasonal mean temperature and precipitation responses can be fairly well reproduced.

show abstract

Standard years for large-scale hydrological scenario simulations

Cited by 9 publications

References 9 publications

Tales of future weather

Tales of future weather

Hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events to assess the impact of climate change in a large basin with limited data

Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About