Stalled Improvement in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model as Horizontal Resolution Increases to the Sub-Kilometer Scale

Ito, Junshi; Hayashi, Syugo; Hashimoto, Akihiro; Ohtake, Hideaki; Uno, Fumichika; Yoshimura, Hiromasa; Kato, Teruyuki; Yamada, Yoshiyuki

doi:10.2151/sola.2017-028

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…They did not find a significant improvement in performance between horizontal resolutions of 2 km and 0.5 km. This study validates the same products as in Ito et al [12]'s study, but the radiation processes (shortwave and longwave radiations) are verified using surface and satellite monitoring data.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 85%

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Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions

et al. 2019

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This study examines the performance of radiation processes (shortwave and longwave radiations) using numerical weather prediction models (NWPs). NWP were calculated using four different horizontal resolutions (5, 2 and 1 km, and 500 m). Validation results on solar irradiance simulations with a horizontal resolution of 500 m indicated positive biases for direct normal irradiance dominate for the period from 09 JST (Japan Standard Time) to 15 JST. On the other hand, after 15 JST, negative biases were found. For diffused irradiance, weak negative biases were found. Validation results on upward longwave radiation found systematic negative biases of surface temperature (corresponding to approximately −2 K for summer and approximately −1 K for winter). Downward longwave radiation tended to be weak negative biases during both summer and winter. Frequency of solar irradiance suggested that the frequency of rapid variations of solar irradiance (ramp rates) from the NWP were less than those observed. Generally, GHI distributions between the four different horizontal resolutions resembled each other, although horizontal resolutions also became finer.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…A previous study by Ito et al [12] reported validation results on brightness, temperature, and surface precipitation from the JMA's non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM), with horizontal resolutions between 5 km and 0.5 km. They did not find a significant improvement in performance between horizontal resolutions of 2 km and 0.5 km.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions

et al. 2019

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“…Whereas properties of individual convective updrafts, like area, velocity, require finer grid spacing than 4 km (Petch et al 2002;Bryan et al 2003;Craig and Dörnbrack 2008;Jeevanjee 2017;Hanley et al 2014), bulk properties, such as domain-averaged precipitation amount or net heating and moistening, have been found to already converge around 4 km (Langhans et al 2012;Schwartz et al 2009;Panosetti et al 2018). Moreover, properties of individual convective updrafts, even if not converged, do not always project strongly on the skill of a simulation (Ito et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Statistics in Global Simulations of the Atmosphere, from 80 to 2.5 km Grid Spacing

Hohenegger

Kornblueh

Klocke³

et al. 2020

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Basic climate statistics, such as water and energy budgets, location and width of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), trimodal tropical cloud distribution, position of the polar jet and land-sea contrast remain either biased in coarse-resolution General Circulation Models or are tuned. Here we examine the horizontal resolution dependency of such statistics in a set of global convection-permitting simulations integrated with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model, explicit convection and grid spacings ranging from 80 km down to 2.5 km. The impact of resolution is quantified by comparing the resolution-induced differences to the spread obtained in an ensemble of eight distinct global storm-resolving models. Using this metric, we find that, at least by 5 km, the resolution-induced differences become smaller than the spread in 26 out of the 27 investigated statistics. Even for 9 (18) of these statistics, a grid spacing of 80 (10) km does not lead to significant differences. Resolution down to 5 km matters especially for net shortwave radiation, which systematically increases with resolution due to reductions in low cloud amount over the subtropical oceans. Further resolution dependencies can be found in the land-to-ocean precipitation ratio, in the latitudinal position and width of the Pacific ITCZ and in the longitudinal position of the Atlantic ITCZ. Also in the tropics, the deep convective cloud population systematically increases at the ex

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“…On the one hand, convective cloud processes (dynamics, turbulence, and microphysics) occur on scales that are not fully resolved at kilometer resolution (Skamarock 2004;Neumann et al 2019;Panosetti et al 2019b). On the other hand, studies have indicated that there is some bulk convergence at grid resolutions around 2 km, that is, the feedbacks between convective clouds and the larger-scale flow are partly captured at resolutions at which the structural details of the cloud field are not yet fully resolved (Langhans et al 2012;Harvey et al 2017;Ito et al 2017;Panosetti et al 2019Panosetti et al , 2020. Following Schulthess et al (2019) and Neumann et al (2019), we thus assume that a global resolution of 1 km is a suitable near-term target.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Kilometer-Scale Climate Models: Prospects and Challenges

Schär

Fuhrer

Arteaga

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

134

125

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Currently major efforts are underway toward refining the horizontal resolution (or grid spacing) of climate models to about 1 km, using both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs). Several groups have succeeded in conducting kilometer-scale multiweek GCM simulations and decadelong continental-scale RCM simulations. There is the well-founded hope that this increase in resolution represents a quantum jump in climate modeling, as it enables replacing the parameterization of moist convection by an explicit treatment. It is expected that this will improve the simulation of the water cycle and extreme events and reduce uncertainties in climate change projections. While kilometer-scale resolution is commonly employed in limitedarea numerical weather prediction, enabling it on global scales for extended climate simulations requires a concerted effort. In this paper, we exploit an RCM that runs entirely on graphics processing units (GPUs) and show examples that highlight the prospects of this approach. A particular challenge addressed in this paper relates to the growth in output volumes. It is argued that the data avalanche of high-resolution simulations will make it impractical or impossible to store the data. Rather, repeating the simulation and conducting online analysis will become more efficient. A prototype of this methodology is presented. It makes use of a bit-reproducible model version that ensures reproducible simulations across hardware architectures, in conjunction with a data virtualization layer as a common interface for output analyses. An assessment of the potential of these novel approaches will be provided.

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Stalled Improvement in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model as Horizontal Resolution Increases to the Sub-Kilometer Scale

Cited by 15 publications

References 27 publications

Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions

Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions

Climate Statistics in Global Simulations of the Atmosphere, from 80 to 2.5 km Grid Spacing

Kilometer-Scale Climate Models: Prospects and Challenges

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