Stage-specific, Nonlinear Surface Ozone Damage to Rice Production in China

Abstract

China is one of the most heavily polluted nations and is also the largest agricultural producer. There are relatively few studies measuring the effects of pollution on crop yields in China, and most are based on experiments or simulation methods. We use observational data to study the impact of increased air pollution (surface ozone) on rice yields in Southeast China. We examine nonlinearities in the relationship between rice yields and ozone concentrations and find that an additional day with a maximum ozone concentration greater than 120 ppb is associated with a yield loss of 1.12% ± 0.83% relative to a day with maximum ozone concentration less than 60 ppb. We find that increases in mean ozone concentrations, SUM60, and AOT40 during panicle formation are associated with statistically significant yield losses, whereas such increases before and after panicle formation are not. We conclude that heightened surface ozone levels will potentially lead to reductions in rice yields that are large enough to have implications for the global rice market.

Productivity Spillovers From Pollution Reduction: Reducing Coal Use Increases Crop Yields

“…We summarize the results of the two sets of regressions in table . We measure ozone pollution using AOT40, a cumulative metric, which is the sum of hourly ozone concentrations exceeding 40 ppb over the growing season; see Tong et al (2007), McGrath et al (2015), and Carter et al (2017), among others . We report results for unbalanced‐panel yield models with county‐specific linear trends and controlling for weather.…”

“…Recent papers that employ regression techniques to evaluate the effects of pollution on crop yields include Carter et al (2017), McGrath et al (2015), Burney and Ramanathan (2014), and Auffhammer, Ramanathan, and Vincent (2006). Carter et al study the effects of ozone on rice yields in China.…”

Characterization of Surface Ozone Behavior at Different Regimes

“…Concerning human health, O 3 can cause injuries to airway epithelial cells (and lung diseases such as asthma), hyperplasia, headaches, and nausea, particularly in sensitive people, such as children and elderly [6][7][8][9][10]. Regarding vegetation, O 3 can damage plant leaves (decreases in both leaf photosynthesis and leaf area), reducing crop yields associated with a high negative economic impact [11][12][13]. Moreover, as a strong oxidant, it is responsible for the degradation of material via corrosion [14].…”

Interactive effects of changing stratospheric ozone and climate on tropospheric composition and air quality, and the consequences for human and ecosystem health

“…Further estimates of decreased yields in important crops due to exposure to O3 have been reported. In a study of production of rice in China, 161 it was shown that, for each day with concentrations of O3 > 240 µg m -3 , there was a loss of yield of 1.12% ± 0.83%. The authors point out that increased concentrations of O3 at ground-level in China may lead to reductions in rice yields large enough to have implications for the global rice market.…”