“…Although statistically significant concurrent correlations were not found between SAM index values and river flow for the CTB region, the sign of the monthly and one season ahead correlations are strongly suggestive of CTB high flows being consequential on a positive SAM phase (Tables 4 and 5). Given its similar geographic setting to that of BoPHB, and the SAM river flow association described above for that region as well as CWLNI and LoSI, it would appear that orographic forcing or blocking or steering play a fundamental role in controlling the hydrological outcome of strong positive and negative phases of SAM across New Zealand via its precipitation gradients across NZ (Chater & Sturman, 1998;Kerr, Srinivasan, & Rutherford, 2015;Webster, Kingston, & Kerr, 2015). Further, the posited significance of distinct synoptic scale configurations of atmospheric circulation for river flow across New Zealand is supported by work conducted for similar geographical settings that evaluate the importance of orography in determining hydrological outcomes arising from contrasting phases of large scale modes of climatic variability (Luce, Abatzoglou, & Holden, 2013;Mass, Johnson, Warner, & Vargas, 2015;Siler, Roe, & Durran, 2013;Viale & Nunez, 2011).…”