For decades, researchers have endeavored to better predict the incidence of vector-borne disease on a planet with a changing climate. Methods, though imperfect, have advanced considerably and led to the tantalizing prospect of forecasting the emergence of diseases such as malaria and dengue in new locations. This paper presents some of these recent advances and considers them in the context of their prospective aim: to prevent harm from vector-borne disease.Keywords Climate change . Vector-borne disease . Malaria . Dengue . Daily temperature range . Anopheles . Aedes . El Niño southern oscillation At various points in our species history, microbes have brought us to extinction's door, and despite major progress in combatting infectious diseases in recent decades, around 200 million people will fall sick with malaria, and nearly twice as many with dengue fever, this year. Millions more will contract other vector-borne diseases. No wonder, then, that much concern followed from initial suspicions [e.g., 1] and early research suggesting that climate change might foment conditions favorable to vector-borne disease transmission [e.g., 2, 3].Yet, a look into the most current and scientifically informed crystal ball to discern the future of human vector-borne disease would at best yi\eld hazy results, even if much less hazy than in the past, owing to research over the past several decades that has deepened understanding about vectors, pathogens, and climate change itself. This paper explores recent advances in vector-borne disease modeling relevant to climate change and considers future directions for modeling vector-borne disease emergence as climate change unfolds.
Better Knowledge of Bugs and Better Models of DiseaseModels of future distributions of vector-borne disease endeavor to predict where and, often, when infections may occur. Over the past 20 years, these models have been honed based upon new knowledge of the many components that determine disease spread; whether this has come with increased accuracy remains unclear. However, many developments have given cause for optimism that disease incidence model accuracy is improving.Consider models of malaria transmission and handling of temperature. Such models for a long time largely ignored temperature effects on mosquito development, this despite the knowledge that climate change was pushing temperatures upward and that adult mosquito populations depend strongly on juvenile (i.e., egg, larva, and pupa stage) survival. Anopheles gambiae larvae, for example, have shown that warmer aquatic larval temperature is associated with higher adult mortality [4]. Based upon this and other data obtained in a lab, Beck-Johnson et al. developed a malaria transmission model that incorporates all stages of the mosquito life cycle. Their model predicted peak abundance of infective mosquitoes at lower temperatures as compared to temperature-independent models, demonstrating the importance of factoring in temperature effects on mosquito development. The authors further compar...