Stability and change in personal fertility ideals among U.S. women in heterosexual relationships

Abstract

BACKGROUND Demographers typically ask about societal, not personal, fertility ideals. Societal ideals are probably more stable than personal ideals. Assessing whether personal fertility ideals are as stable as societal ideals could inform models of population fertility change and models of well-being associated with fertility outcomes. METHODS We use the two-wave National Survey of Fertility Barriers (NSFB) to model stability and change in fertility ideals among 879 women in heterosexual couples that persisted for both waves. RESULTS Personal fertility ideals are stable for most (69%) women, but roughly one-third adjust their ideal number between waves. Of the women who changed their personal fertility ideal, approximately half increase and half decrease their personal fertility ideal over time. Multinomial logistic regression indicates that women with a higher fertility ideal at Wave 1 had higher odds of increasing and lower odds of decreasing their fertility ideal by Wave 2. Higher education was associated with lower likelihood of increasing fertility ideals. In addition, full-time employment at the initial interview was associated with higher likelihood of decreasing fertility ideals.

Expectations after expecting: the impact of first birth on the fertility expectations of one child women in the USA and UK

“…In the USA, increases in expectations over time were associated with initially desiring fewer than two children (Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2003) and with sequential childbearing. The size of the effect, however, appears larger for higher parities (Heiland et al, 2008;Miller & Pasta, 1995;Ray et al, 2018) and for those who have positive previous birth experiences (Iacovou & Tavares, 2011).…”

“…Although some have used cross-sectional samples to infer change (Testa & Grilli, 2006), the more convincing explorations come from studies that follow individuals longitudinally. Putting to one side a growing literature on expectations over time among childless individuals, studies looking at expectations among women with children find that there is a considerable number who do have stable expectations, particularly among those desiring two children (Heiland, Prskawetz, & Sanderson, 2008;Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2003) and in USA analyses (Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2003;Ray, Harcey, Greil, Tiemeyer, & McQuillan, 2018). The studies also highlight, however, sizeable adjustments of intentions over the life course among other groups.…”

“…The studies also highlight, however, sizeable adjustments of intentions over the life course among other groups. Change over time has been explained by various factors including partnership status (Gray et al, 2013;Hayford, 2009;Iacovou & Tavares, 2011;Liefbroer, 2009;Mitchell & Gray, 2007), education (Dey & Wasoff, 2010;Liefbroer, 2009;Ray et al, 2018), the labour market (Gray et al, 2013;Heiland et al, 2008;Liefbroer, 2009;Ray et al, 2018), religion (Heiland et al, 2008;Ray et al, 2018), number of siblings (Dey & Wasoff, 2010;Heiland et al, 2008) and expectations for more than two children (Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2003). Postponement of childbearing to the thirties, in particular, has been associated with adjustment of intentions downwards over time compared to those who start childbearing earlier (Liefbroer, 2009), as has age more generally, with those in their thirties expecting fewer than those in their twenties (Dey & Wasoff, 2010;Hayford, 2009;Heiland et al, 2008;Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2003).…”

“…that having a first child causes fertility desires to be revised downwards) in Austria. Miller and Pasta (1995) found evidence of upwards revisions as a result of a birth in the US, but Ray et al (2018) found that US women who had one child were less likely to increase their fertility ideals over time compared to maintaining stable intentions. Furthermore, although the addition of 'a child' was associated with increased fertility ideals over time, the first child was not.…”

A Panel Study of Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Dynamics in the Presence of Competing Pregnancy Risks in Uganda

“…This no tion is supported in other re cent stud ies in de vel oped con texts. For ex am ple, Ray et al's (2018) study of the sta bil ity of per sonal fer til ity ide als among U.S. women us ing two waves of data from the National Survey of Fertility Barriers found that one-third of women ad justed their ideal num ber of chil dren in ei ther di rec tion be tween waves. Such findings on both the sta bil ity of fer til ity de sires and con ver gence be tween intended and achieved par ity are also con di tioned by the in ter val be tween study time points and the level of fer til ity at the start.…”