Stability analysis of slopes based on cloud model-Monte Carlo coupling

Abstract

Risk analysis of dam slopes is crucial for ensuring the safety and stability of hydraulic engineering. To improve the accuracy and reliability of risk analysis, we adopt the cloud theory approach and conduct a study on the distribution types of soil shear strength indicators based on indoor geotechnical tests. We propose a “cloud model-Monte Carlo” coupling model that uses the cloud model to describe the uncertainty of risk factors and determine the probability distribution types of shear strength parameters, while the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate random variables in the model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated through a risk analysis of a slope of an earth-rock dam, with results showing significantly greater accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods. The calculation results show that the risk probability corresponding to the design flood level of the dam is 9.01×10-6, exceeding its allowable risk standard of 0.5×10-6, hence the need for reinforcement treatment. The proposed model can accurately evaluate the risk of dams and provide the scientific basis for decision-making in dam safety management.

Research on Temperature Control Index for High Concrete Dams Based on Information Entropy and Cloud Model from the View of Spatial Field

“…For dam safety monitoring, the cloud model has also achieved successful applications. Han et al proposed the cloud model-Monte Carlo coupling model that can accurately evaluate risk degree in dam safety management [35]. Wu et al integrated the cloud model and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to assess the safety state of tailing dams.…”