SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Masui, Toshihiko; Toko, Kiyoshi; Herran, Diego Silva; Dai, Hancheng; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Kainuma, Mikiko

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009

Cited by 445 publications

(331 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The ssp370 ScenarioMIP simulation will need to have been run with the AerChemMIP setup and diagnostics, or repeated here. The data for the perturbation experiment to this within AerChem-MIP will be generated by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) group using the same socio-economic scenario as in Fujimori et al (2017), but with "Strong" levels of air qual- Lower levels of technological advance overall ity control measures SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF. The energy use and levels of climate mitigation are the same in these two scenarios.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozonedepleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. Specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

et al. 2017

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“…Given that different climate policies may impact future energy prices, electricity price data for two climate policies are used. These are from Fujimori, et al [27]. For the purpose of comparison, all cost figures in this paper are given in 2005 US Dollars, calculated based on the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI).…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This may be greatly affected by future climate policies, as different policies lead to different energy prices [27]. In the present study, to clarify the effect of climate policy on future SWRO diffusion, future simulations of PC and WP models are carried out under the following two climate policy scenarios [49]:…”

Section: Future Simulations With Developed Pc and Wp Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Economic Assessment of the Global Potential for Seawater Desalination to 2050

Gao

Yoshikawa

Iseri

et al. 2017

Water

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Seawater desalination is a promising approach to satisfying water demand in coastal countries suffering from water scarcity. To clarify its potential future global scale, we perform a detailed investigation of the economic feasibility of desalination development for different countries using a feasibility index (F i ) that reflects a comparison between the price of water and the cost of production. We consider both past and future time periods. For historical validation, F i is first evaluated for nine major desalination countries; its variation is in good agreement with the actual historical development of desalination in these countries on both spatial and temporal scales. We then simulate the period of 2015-2050 for a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and two climate scenarios. Our projected results suggest that desalination will become more feasible for countries undergoing continued development by 2050. The corresponding total global desalination population will increase by 3.2-fold in 2050 compared to the present (from 551.6 × 10 6 in 2015 to 1768 × 10 6 ). The major spread of seawater desalination to more countries and its availability to larger populations is mainly attributed to the diminishing production costs and increasing water prices in these countries under the given socioeconomic/climate scenarios.

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“…SSP1 depicts the sustainable growth pathway, with lower challenges to both mitigation and adaptation [37], and here using the SSP1 assumption allows us to see how much the mitigation costs are reduced by the corresponding factors within the SSP1 world. For more information about SSP1 assumptions, please refer to Fujimori et al [38]. Several assumptions are exceptions ( Table 1).…”

Section: Scenario Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C

et al. 2018

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The Paris Agreement has confirmed that the ultimate climate policy goal is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 C. Moving the goal from 2 C to 1.5 C calls for much more concerted effort, and presents greater challenges and costs. This study uses an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) to evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors (e.g. technological cost and energy demand assumptions) in changing mitigation costs and achieving the 1.5C and 2 C goals, and to identify the channels through which socioeconomic factors affect mitigation costs. Four families of socioeconomic factors were examined, namely low-carbon energy-supply technologies, end-use energy-efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes and biomass-technology promotion (technology cost reduction and social acceptance promotion). The results show that technological improvement in low-carbon energy-supply technologies is the most important factor in reducing mitigation costs. Moreover, under the constraints of the 1.5 C goal, the relative effectiveness of other socioeconomic factors, such as energy efficiency improvement, lifestyle changes and biomassrelated technology promotion, becomes more important in decreasing mitigation cost in the 1.5 C scenarios than in the 2 C scenarios.

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SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cited by 445 publications

References 36 publications

AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

An Economic Assessment of the Global Potential for Seawater Desalination to 2050

Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C

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