Spring weather and the migration of geese from Scotland to Iceland

Boyd, Hugh; Bell, Michael V.; Watson, Alan D.

doi:10.1080/03078698.2000.9674238

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…An autoregressive moving average model (ARMA model,; cf. Box et al 1994) was used to describe variation in productivity. This allowed us to control for potential cyclic patterns and non-independence of data points.…”

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The order of autoregressive (p) and moving average (q) parts of the model was evaluated by plotting the partial autocorrelation functions and autocorrelation functions for these estimates, respectively, and identifying the point for which higher orders where basically zero (the Box-Jenkins approach; cf. Box et al 1994). Model fits were further evaluated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) (Brockwell and Davis 2009).…”

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

Clausen

2013

Oecologia

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An uneven change in climate across the Northern Hemisphere might severely affect the phenology of migrating animals, and especially long-distance migrating birds relying on local climatic cues to regulate the timing of migration. We examine the forward displacement of spring in both staging areas and breeding grounds of one such population, the East Atlantic light-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla hrota, and evaluate to what extent their migration has made a proportional response. On the breeding grounds in Svalbard the onset of spring advanced 2 weeks during the 24-year period, whereas no significant trend was found in the temperate staging areas. The timing of migration was constant throughout the study period, mirroring the static climatic conditions in the spring staging areas. These findings indicate a global warming-induced phenological mismatch in light-bellied brent geese, as these might arrive on their breeding grounds well beyond optimal breeding conditions. Our data indicated that productivity was negatively influenced by phenological delay and positively influenced by prolonged snow cover. We argue that both these effects might be representative of a negative influence of the growing phenological mismatch, because years with later thaw might partly offset the effects of increasingly earlier Svalbard springs. During the study period reproduction fell below annual mortality, and the population declined in recent years. The wider implications of these findings may extend to many migrating species, and highlight the urgent need to clarify how global change may influence cues and the associated timing of important life history activities.

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Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

Clausen

2013

Oecologia

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“…NDVI‐measures were not calculated for the high‐Arctic Svalbard archipelago where the two goose populations breed, but a rapid advancement in spring development, with a corresponding phenological response, has been reported for Greenland (Høye et al 2007). Earlier arrival of several goose populations have also been recorded for Iceland and Sweden (Boyd et al 2000, Nilsson 2006). In Sweden, earlier arrival is suggested to be due to a combination of milder winters and changes in agriculture (Nilsson 2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

The onset of spring and timing of migration in two arctic nesting goose populations: the pink‐footed goose Anser bachyrhynchus and the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis

Tombre¹,

Høgda²,

Madsen³

et al. 2008

Journal of Avian Biology

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An earlier onset of spring has been recorded for many parts of Eurasia in recent decades. This has consequences for migratory species, both in changing the conditions encountered by individuals on reaching migratory sites and in affecting cues regulating the timing of migration where decisions to migrate are influenced by local environmental variables. Here we examine the timing of spring migration for two arctic goose populations, the pink‐footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus (during 1990–2003) and barnacle goose Branta leucopsis (during 1982–2003), which both breed on Svalbard. The satellite‐derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to express the onset of spring at their wintering and spring staging sites. Pink‐footed geese use several sites during spring migration, ranging from the southernmost wintering areas in Belgium to two spring staging areas in Norway, and distances between sites used along the flyway are relatively short. There was a positive correlation in the onset of spring between neighbouring sites, and the geese migrated earlier in early springs. Barnacle geese, on the other hand, have a long overseas crossing from their wintering grounds in Britain to spring staging areas in Norway. Although spring advanced in both regions, there was no corresponding correlation in the timing of onset of spring between their wintering and spring staging sites, and little evidence for barnacle geese migrating earlier over the whole study period. Hence, where geese can use spring conditions at one site as an indicator of the conditions they might encounter at the next, they have responded quickly to the advancement of spring, whereas in a situation where they cannot predict, they have not yet responded, despite the advancement of spring in the spring staging area.

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“…The daily register of circulation patterns over the British Isles, originally compiled by Lamb (1972b) and updated by Hulme & Barrow (1997) and CRU, UEA, were used to search for linkages with the timing of passerine arrivals in Iceland. Though these were found for geese migrating from Scotland to Iceland (Boyd et al 2000), this approach yielded no useful results for passerines.…”

Section: Wintering and Staging Areasmentioning

confidence: 86%

Spring arrival of passerine migrants in Iceland

Boyd

2003

Ringing & Migration

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First sightings in Iceland throughout the 20 th century of four summer migrant passerines were studied for possible changes in arrival dates over time, and to relate arrivals to weather conditions in Iceland and in their probable wintering and staging areas. Arrival dates advanced considerably until the 1930s, as Icelandic seasonal temperatures increased. Temperatures and arrival dates changed much less in later years, when Icelandic temperatures showed no sustained trends. Since 1950, Redwings Turdus iliacus coburni have first been seen in the last week of March, Meadow Pipits Anthus pratensis and White Wagtails Motacilla a alba about 20 April and Wheatears Oenanthe o leucorhoa about 25 April. All four species were usually seen earlier when springs in Iceland were warm and wet, and after warm winters in southern Spain. Limited records of departures in autumn suggest that the mean lengths of stay in 1951-2000 were: Redwing 233 days, Meadow Pipit 164, White Wagtail 162 and Wheatear 144 days. Sightings of Redwings and Meadow Pipits, some of which winter in Britain & Ireland, were earlier after warm winters, and during warm springs, in central England. White Wagtails and Wheatears, wintering in Africa, showed no response to English temperatures. First sightings were most likely when winds over Iceland had easterly or southerly components. In 1951-1970 arrivals of Redwings and Meadow Pipits were earlier after winters in which the North Atlantic Oscillation index had been positive and high, but before and after that period no linkage was apparent. Most of these findings resemble those reported from north Norway, though the populations of at least three of the species are probably different. They are unlike the findings from Britain and western Europe, where dates of arrival have advanced most rapidly in recent years while winter and spring warming has continued. Recent studies in Britain and mainland Europe have revealed that the arrival dates of many species of summer migrants advanced during the second half of the 20 th century (

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Spring weather and the migration of geese from Scotland to Iceland

Cited by 5 publications

References 4 publications

Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

The onset of spring and timing of migration in two arctic nesting goose populations: the pink‐footed goose Anser bachyrhynchus and the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis

Spring arrival of passerine migrants in Iceland

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