Spreading Uncertainty, Shrinking Birth Rates: A Natural Experiment for Italy

Comolli, Chiara Ludovica; Vignoli, Daniele

doi:10.1093/esr/jcab001

Cited by 34 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Schneider (2015) suggested that press coverage of the economy can more accurately measure the sentiments that shape economic uncertainty and affect fertility behaviors than objective indicators such as unemployment and foreclosures. Comolli and Vignoli (2021) showed that the general public responds to the media's framing of uncertainty, with implications for childbearing. Interestingly, the results obtained within communication research suggest that negative news has a stronger impact on perceptions than positive reports.…”

Section: Narratives Of the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

et al. 2022

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In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future—i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures—impact individuals’ decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

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Section: Narratives Of the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

et al. 2022

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“…And fertility tends to decrease when economic conditions are less certain (Sobotka et al, 2011). The recent effects of the Great Recession amplified the importance of economic uncertainty for childbearing (Caltabiano et al, 2017;Comolli & Vignoli, 2021;Comolli, 2017;. Notably, while the effect of economic changes on fertility was found to be the strongest in countries most affected by the economic recession , financial and labour market uncertainty affects fertility decisions even in countries where basic material conditions are stable and the state is protective .…”

Section: Fertility Choices In the Pre-pandemic Eramentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and childbearing intentions in Poland

Malicka

Mynarska

Świderska

2021

JFamRes

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Objective: We aim to investigate how the perceived consequences of COVID-19 affect people's childbearing intentions in Poland. Background: With the pandemic having an impact on virtually all spheres of people's lives, some evidence already exists that it will lead to fertility postponement, as people are reluctant to make their reproductive choices in such uncertain times. Method: We analyse a nationally representative sample of 1000 respondents aged 18-49. In the sample, 234 respondents declared that they had intended to have a child before the outbreak of the pandemic and about 20% of them stated having postponed or foregone their intention because of COVID-19. We perform logistic regression analyses to verify which perceived consequences of the pandemic are most decisive for this choice. We supplement our analyses with insights from qualitative, open-ended question on the effects of the pandemic. Results: We find that people’s decision to postpone childbearing is related to respondents' perceived lower sense of financial security and worse mental well-being in the pandemic. In the model, where both factors are included, only mental well-being remains significant. Qualitative analyses point to several other factors important to fertility decisions in the pandemic, e.g., women’s fear of lonely childbirth. Conclusion: People’s decision to postpone childbearing because of COVID-19 is mostly related to pandemic-induced financial insecurity and this effect seems to be mediated by the psychological reaction to the situation.

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“…However, past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, such as economic crises and financial turbulences (Sobotka et al 2011;Comolli 2017) as well as on the outbreaks of infectious diseases such as the Zika infection in Latin America (Rangel et al 2020;Marteleto et al 2020) show that people often postpone or revise their childbearing plans in uncertain times (Vignoli et al 2020). These responses result in considerable short-term fluctuations in fertility (e.g., Comolli and Vignoli 2021). Indeed, surveys on fertility intentions in Europe and in the United States during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spring 2020 revealed that many women decided to delay or even give up their childbearing plans (Lindberg et al 2020;Luppi et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series

Sobotka¹,

Jasilioniene²,

Galarza³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the outbreaks of infectious diseases, show that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times. We study the most recent data on monthly birth trends to analyse the initial fertility responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research, based on new Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations (STFF) data series (https://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/stff.php), embedded in the Human Fertility Database (HFD), shows the initial signs of the expected “birth recession”. Monthly number of births in many countries fell sharply between October 2020 and the most recent month observed, often bringing about a clear reversal of the previous trend. Across 17 countries with lower fluctuations in births, the number of births fell on average by 5.1% in November 2020, 6.5% in December 2020 and 8.9% in January 2021 when compared with the same month of the previous year. Spain sustained the sharpest drop in the number of births among the analysed countries, with the number of births plummeting by 20% in December 2020 and January 2021. The combined effect of rising mortality and falling birth rates is disrupting the balance of births and deaths in many countries, pushing natural population increase to record low levels in 2020 and 2021.

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Spreading Uncertainty, Shrinking Birth Rates: A Natural Experiment for Italy

Cited by 34 publications

References 69 publications

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Perceived consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and childbearing intentions in Poland

Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series

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