Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses, and Moscow in Moldova's Civil War

Single mothers in Osh

“…As elsewhere, complex, messy, and deeply political dynamics led to the progressive ethnicization of the confl ict (Reeves 2010). Similar dynamics, in which confl ict among political elites rapidly "spirals" into ethnic confl ict, have been observed across former Soviet states, including Moldova and Ukraine (e.g., Kaufman 1996;Osipian and Osipian 2012). Th us, further study of the confl ict itself would necessarily consider how elites create ethnic tension and obscure other forms and patterns of social injustices and grievance.…”

A Theory of Security Strategy for Our Time

“…As I show elsewhere (Tang 2010a), this misperception provided the main intellectual foundation for Stuart Kaufman's deeply flawed application of the security dilemma to ethnic conflict (Kaufman 1996a(Kaufman , 1996b. In reality, the security dilemma can only be structural in origin, although it can indeed be regulated by two types of regulators: one material or structural, one perceptual or psychological.…”

“…84 The linking of nationalism with the security dilemma in ethnic conflicts might have been the sole exception (Kaufman 1996a(Kaufman , 1996bRoe 2001Roe , 2004. 85 With a growing and more sophisticated literature on psychological factors in international politics, now it may be high time to rekindle the ties between psychological factors and the security dilemma.…”

“…After the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, these privileged positions were in serious jeopardy. And this fear of "replacement effect" among the Russian elite in the Dniestr region may have been the major reason that propelled them into seeking eventual secession (Kaufman 1996a(Kaufman , 1996b. For "replacement effect," see Acemoglu and Robinson (2006).…”

The Internationalization of Ethnic Conflict: State, Society, and Synthesis

“…Presumably some ethnic conflicts associated with high levels of violence—in particular, protracted separatist conflicts—may be met with an immediate response by an elite with support from ethnic allies (Starr 1990; Marshall 1997). It can be argued that regime stability impacts upon the likelihood of the externalization of ethnic conflict—the weaker the leadership of the state, the greater the possibility that external conflict will ensue (Starr 1990; Van Evera 1994; Kaufman 1996; Davis et al. 1997).…”