Spillover of international crude oil prices on China's refined oil wholesale prices and price forecasting: Daily-frequency data of private enterprises and local refineries

Pan, Xunzhang; Ma, Xiran; Wang, Lining; Lu, Yachen; Dai, Jiaquan; Li, Xiang

doi:10.1016/j.petsci.2022.03.013

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The problems with curbing inflation are largely due to the fluctuation of oil prices on world markets. This is confirmed by international studies that clearly show a high dependence of inflation on oil price fluctuations, as well as on the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic (Apergis, Apergis, 2020;Gil-Alana, Monge, 2020;Xun-Zhang et al, 2022;Li et al, 2022). For example, studies by Kamber and Wong or Long and Zhang show that energy commodity prices have a very strong impact on global inflation (Aastveit et al, 2015;Baumeister, Kilian, 2016;Long, Zhang, 2022;Carlomagno, Albagli, 2022), while Hamilton's research revealed for the first time a close correlation between oil price shocks and macroeconomic results (Hamilton, 1983).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 77%

Exploring the Effects of Oil Prices on Road Freight in Poland Amidst Covid-19 and Russo-Ukrainian War

WALASEK,

SADOWSKA,

STĘPNICKA

et al. 2023

hss

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Destructive market forces are multiplying as the world faces the worst global energy crisis in history. The continuing economic downturn and fluctuating oil prices, triggered by OPEC+’s plan to reduce supply, are slowing down global oil demand. In this respect, the situation in the transport services market is changing. Changes in the price of oil are indirectly influencing the formation of wholesale diesel prices; consequently, road freight should also change. However, are these changes correlative and do oil price fluctuations directly affect freight rate changes? This article aims to investigate the correlation between fluctuations in oil prices on world markets and their impact on wholesale diesel prices and, thus, the development of net road freight in Poland. In the study, the authors developed a model called “fuel adjustment,” containing the fluctuations in wholesale diesel prices, which were taken into account in determining the average deviation in the road freight level over the analyzed period. In this way, it became possible to determine the amount of road freight and its fluctuations depending on the development of oil prices on world markets. The results of the study confirm that there is a strong and positive relationship between the analyzed variables. When the prices of crude oil on world markets fall, this should be followed by reductions in diesel prices in individual countries, including Poland. Consequently, the amount of road freight should also have a downward trend. Will this happen?

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 77%

Exploring the Effects of Oil Prices on Road Freight in Poland Amidst Covid-19 and Russo-Ukrainian War

WALASEK,

SADOWSKA,

STĘPNICKA

et al. 2023

hss

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…At the same time, they proposed that region and income would have a moderating effect on this process and believed that the upward and downward adjustment of the international crude oil price would have an asymmetric effect on the retail price of refined oil products, and that the effect of the decrease is relatively insignificant [19]. Esteban et al derived the spillover effect of international crude oil prices on refined oil product prices by using the VAR-BECK-GARCH model, and then tried to predict wholesale prices by using the PCA-BP neural network model [20]. He et al found that China's oil oligarchs had a near-monopoly on the market, leading to asymmetric pricing in the refined oil market [21].…”

Section: Qualitative Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Effect of Marketization Reform on the Price of Aviation Kerosene in China

Cao,

Li,

Meng

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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The development of the aviation industry relies heavily on stable kerosene prices, and price fluctuations have an impact on its economic sustainability. To explore the effect of China’ s implementation of market-oriented reform of aviation kerosene prices, our study aims to evaluate the dynamic correlation between China’s aviation kerosene prices and Singapore’s CIF price, supply and demand, domestic economic development level and other market-oriented factors. To this end, in this paper, monthly data from 2006 to 2019 were selected for the variables mentioned above and, based on multiple econometric techniques, the influence of market factors on the price of aviation kerosene in China was studied. The empirical results confirm that the current Chinese aviation kerosene price has a significant linking effect with the CIF price of Singapore’s imports and is affected by the level of domestic demand. China’s aviation kerosene price is more affected by international oil and gas market factors relative to fundamental factors in the domestic market. The long- and short-term Granger causality test results also show that the market-oriented reform of China’s aviation kerosene field is beginning to take effect. Finally, the article discusses and puts forward suggestions for promoting China’s market-oriented price reform for refined oil products and the sustainable development of the aviation industry.

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Deeppipe: A two-stage physics-informed neural network for predicting mixed oil concentration distribution

Zheng

Liang

et al. 2023

Energy

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Spillover of international crude oil prices on China's refined oil wholesale prices and price forecasting: Daily-frequency data of private enterprises and local refineries

Cited by 9 publications

References 39 publications

Exploring the Effects of Oil Prices on Road Freight in Poland Amidst Covid-19 and Russo-Ukrainian War

Exploring the Effects of Oil Prices on Road Freight in Poland Amidst Covid-19 and Russo-Ukrainian War

Research on the Effect of Marketization Reform on the Price of Aviation Kerosene in China

Deeppipe: A two-stage physics-informed neural network for predicting mixed oil concentration distribution

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