Spillover effects of Germany's final demand on Southern Europe

Picek, Oliver; Schröder, Enno

doi:10.1111/twec.12635

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Although peripheral areas received more funds, the intra-regional network generates intense leakage from the peripheral economies into core economies. In contrast, the opposite leakage from core to periphery appears to be weaker, at least according to the Hobza, Zeugner and Martins (2012) and Picek and Schröder (2017). All in all, these studies suggest that the EU is couched within an interdependent, complex global network; and it is this global network, not individual countries or regions, that frames our analysis for mapping the social footprint of the EU financial instruments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Is the emperor wearing new clothes? A social assessment of the European Union 2007–2013 financial framework

Monsalve

Zafrilla

Cadarso

et al. 2018

Economic Systems Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Over the years, European leaders have proudly waved a social flag as one of the European Union's (EU) constituent and differentiating elements. This commitment is assessed here through the social footprint of the European 2007-2013 multiannual financial framework among the EU countries and, worldwide, using an extended multiregional input-output model. The focus is on the quantity and the quality of income and jobs generated. We find that wellknown differences among its northern, southern and eastern regions threaten the EU's intentions for high social standards, enabling firstand second-class winners. Core EU countries account for the most of the Funds and, thus, most of the positive economic and social impacts, mainly through spillovers from peripheral regions. Beyond the EU borders, Funds expenditures induce capital compensation boosts in emerging countries not balanced by a similar labor compensation impulse. Indeed, China captures the bulk of low-skilled and temporary employment.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Is the emperor wearing new clothes? A social assessment of the European Union 2007–2013 financial framework

Monsalve

Zafrilla

Cadarso

et al. 2018

Economic Systems Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…International organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2015) and the European Commission (2015), have frequently argued that a demand expansion in Germany would have positive effects on demand in other eurozone countries. 4 Recently, using an input-output model, Picek and Schroder (2018) have estimated the spillover effects size of an expansion of Germany's final demand on GDP, employment, and the trade balance in deficit countries in Southern Europe. Although the magnitudes of the spillover effects that they find are larger than those of the above-mentioned studies by the IMF (2015) and the European Commission (2015) based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, they still conclude that "a modest expansion in Germany alone will hardly make a significant contribution to the external adjustment process in the south" (Picek andSchroder 2018: 2218).…”

Section: Theoretical Considerations and Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…4 Recently, using an input-output model, Picek and Schroder (2018) have estimated the spillover effects size of an expansion of Germany's final demand on GDP, employment, and the trade balance in deficit countries in Southern Europe. Although the magnitudes of the spillover effects that they find are larger than those of the above-mentioned studies by the IMF (2015) and the European Commission (2015) based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, they still conclude that "a modest expansion in Germany alone will hardly make a significant contribution to the external adjustment process in the south" (Picek andSchroder 2018: 2218). However, while insightful, these studies model the effects of a demand expansion in Germany, not changes to Germany's current account as such.…”

Section: Theoretical Considerations and Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?

Beirne

Renzhi

Volz

2021

Journal of International Money and Finance

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper examines the regional and global growth effects of current account imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the People's Republic of China (PRC)-the three largest persistent surplus countries-and the United States and United Kingdom, the two largest persistent deficit countries. Controlling for a set of macroeconomic determinants, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to show that positive shocks to current account balances in the PRC, Germany, and Japan transmit positive regional and global growth effects, particularly in the case of spillovers to regional growth from Japan. As expected, the global growth response is lower in magnitude than the regional growth response. In addition, the extent of the effect is amplified by global value chains, pointing to the significant role played by trade in intermediate goods. For current account deficit countries, the magnitudes of the responses of growth to shocks are much lower on average than in the case of current account surplus countries. We find some marginal positive effects on regional and global growth emanating from a positive shock on the UK current account-i.e., a reduction in the deficit. For the US, a positive shock to its persistent current account deficit marginally drags on global growth, possibly reflecting declining import demand and wealth effects linked to the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency. Our findings have important policy implications at the global level, particularly in light of the re-emergence of discussions on global imbalances in recent years.

show abstract

“…Building onPicek and Schröder (2018), this article uses the second version of the WIOD with the latest input-output table from 2014 and extends the analysis further.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spillover Effects From Next Generation EU

Picek¹

2020

Intereconomics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In July 2020, the European Commission announced its €750 billion package to revive the postpandemic European economy, Next Generation EU. The programme comprises a number of loans and grants that will be funded by taking out European debt. Although the rules on liability sharing for Next Generation EU prevent a significant mutualisation of the debt, European leaders have taken the long-recognised significant first step towards European financial and political unification that stands in stark contrast to the misguided austerity programmes during the European sovereign debt crisis.

show abstract

Spillover effects of Germany's final demand on Southern Europe

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

Is the emperor wearing new clothes? A social assessment of the European Union 2007–2013 financial framework

Is the emperor wearing new clothes? A social assessment of the European Union 2007–2013 financial framework

Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?

Spillover Effects From Next Generation EU

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About