While detecting targets on the sea by radar that looks downward, sea spikes similar to the target echoes cause false alarms, especially at low grazing angles. To suppress the interference of sea spikes on target detection, it is important to study the factors influencing the occurrence probability of sea spikes during radar inspections. Based on measured sea clutter data, this study uses the amplitude threshold, duration time, and interval time to identify sea spikes from sea clutter and uses the pulse number per unit time to characterize their occurrence probability. The influences of the grazing angle, wave height, wave direction, and wind speed on the occurrence probability of sea spikes were analyzed. The results indicate that the occurrence probability of sea spikes increases exponentially with decreasing grazing angle in the range from 0.7° to 7.1°, and linearly with increasing wind speed. Wave direction has little or no influence on the probability of sea spikes. At the smaller grazing angles, from 0.7° to 1.7°, the influence of wave height on the probability of sea spikes’ occurrence is obvious, showing a linear trend, but in the range of 2.6° to 7.1°, the influence is not obvious. In addition, the occurrence probability of sea spikes is found greater at wave heights from 0.9 m to 1.1 m relative to other wave heights, which is worthy of further study.