Spies and the Virus: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Intelligence Communication in the United States

Abstract

This paper introduces a crucial parameter to the novel coronavirus response in the United States, by shedding light on the early-warning role of intelligence agencies. It argues that the intelligence components of the federal government's Biological Defense Program offered actionable forewarning about an impending pandemic in the years leading to the COVID-19 outbreak. Yet, almost from the opening stages of the pandemic, senior US government officials, including President Donald Trump, have repeatedly claimed that the virus “came out of nowhere” and that “nobody saw it coming.” We show that these assertions contradict more than 15 years of pandemic preparedness warnings by intelligence professionals, and disregard the existence of intelligence-led federal pandemic response strategies of every US administration in our time. However, rather than simply placing blame on the White House for discounting these warnings, we advance a conceptual analysis of what many in the US Intelligence Community view as a critical breakdown in strategic communication between intelligence professionals and key government decision-makers. This study agrees with those who suggest that the White House disregarded its own pandemic experts. However, it also posits that the means of strategic communication employed by intelligence experts to alert the White House to the threat were unproductive. These alerts were communicated largely through the President's Daily Brief, an archaic, and ineffectual method of communication that is not designed to facilitate the kind of laser-focused, unequivocal exchange of information needed when potentially catastrophic threats confront the world. This study suggests that the Intelligence Community must implement more direct, immediate and conclusive methods of communicating intelligence to decision-makers, and should seriously consider creating a new line of products that addresses existential challenges to national security. Lastly, we contend it is time to re-evaluate existing rules that prevent intelligence analysts from offering advice on policy. Although we agree that intelligence professionals should refrain from providing policy advice on routine matters, we question the value of preventing these highly knowledgeable experts from communicating strategic policy advice to decision-makers when it comes to threats of a catastrophic nature, which may prove potentially existential for the US, its allies, and the world.

Strategic Modeling of Medical Intelligence as a Countermeasure for Future Pandemics

“…The first reported use of intelligence in disease surveillance is mentioned in the 2004 report of the National Intelligence Council [25]. The recent COVID-19 pandemic obviously required AI, ML, and DL automated devices for early detection, diagnosis and treatment [26].…”

“…This turned out to be obvious and significant, particularly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Solutions have to be derived through IoT and AI-driven platforms to engage in medical and therapeutic treatments [3], [19], [25], [27].…”

“…Big data analytical instruments gather information from patients as well as allied institutional sources and supply those for analyzed data to give advanced healthcare facilities to patients to conserve their lives and to advance novel approaches for diagnosing and treating various ailments. Precise evaluation of therapeutic information has the advantages of preliminary illness recognition and enhanced patient treatment services, especially in biomedical and healthcare populations [19], [25], [27].…”

“…As it is pointed out, the intelligent application of AI in healthcare clinical image processing has been frequently embraced by the majority of units that employ snapshots in fields such as ophthalmology, anatomy, gastroenterology, dermatology, and cardiology, in addition to radiology. AI uses, nevertheless, are determined by establishing an immediate relation to information value administration and the technology consciousness of health staffs [19], [25], [27]. In terms of practical implications, present paper intends to generate a productive debate with health care specialists and managerial work force on exactly how AI will be able to extend their service to increase better medical intelligence and its application.…”

Considering COVID-19 through the Lens of Hazard and Disaster Research

“…The world has experienced viral outbreaks in recent years (e.g., AIDS, H1N1, SARS, Ebola); thus, a pandemic has some characteristics similar to a natural hazard. For example, beginning with the George W. Bush administration, U.S. intelligence agencies have consistently warned about the need for pandemic preparedness (Lankford et al 2020;Wirtz 2021). Although virologists were studying various strains of COVID years before the outbreak, they were unsure as to when and where the virus might emerge.…”