Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine

Good, I. J.

doi:10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60418-0

Cited by 357 publications

(204 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…In 1965, Good presented an early exposition on the topic within the modern field of computer science [15]. Good specifically proposed an "intelligence explosion" in which intelligent machines make successively more intelligent machines until they are much smarter than humans, which would be "the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control" [15] (p. 33). This intelligence explosion is one use of the term technological singularity, though the term can also refer to wider forms of radical technological change [16].…”

Section: Superintelligence and Its Skepticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Superintelligence Skepticism as a Political Tool

Baum¹

2018

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This paper explores the potential for skepticism about artificial superintelligence to be used as a tool for political ends. Superintelligence is AI that is much smarter than humans. Superintelligence does not currently exist, but it has been proposed that it could someday be built, with massive and potentially catastrophic consequences. There is substantial skepticism about superintelligence, including whether it will be built, whether it would be catastrophic, and whether it is worth current attention. To date, superintelligence skepticism appears to be mostly honest intellectual debate, though some of it may be politicized. This paper finds substantial potential for superintelligence skepticism to be (further) politicized, due mainly to the potential for major corporations to have a strong profit motive to downplay concerns about superintelligence and avoid government regulation. Furthermore, politicized superintelligence skepticism is likely to be quite successful, due to several factors including the inherent uncertainty of the topic and the abundance of skeptics. The paper's analysis is based on characteristics of superintelligence and the broader AI sector, as well as the history and ongoing practice of politicized skepticism on other science and technology issues, including tobacco, global warming, and industrial chemicals. The paper contributes to literatures on politicized skepticism and superintelligence governance.

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Section: Superintelligence and Its Skepticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Superintelligence Skepticism as a Political Tool

Baum¹

2018

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“…Thus the first ultra-intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. (Good, 1965) Accordingly, Good was a "champion" and influential at the highest governmental, academic and corporate levels with crossover theoretical interests from Bayesian mathematics to computer programming design and manufacturing to film consultancy. Moreover, he was careful not to take an over-optimistic line on the controllability of AI unless -as he wrote -"docility" could be built into the resulting technology.…”

Section: Interactive or Crossover Innovationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A ground-up “Quaternary” innovation strategy for South Korea using entrepreneurial ecosystem platforms

Cooke

2017

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

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This paper offers an account of the recent economic slowdown in the growth trajectory formerly enjoyed by South Korea as one of the first "Asian Tigers". Indicators are provided that, unlike the others, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan that have continued their upward profile, South Korea has stagnated. It is argued that the others and some more recent Asian growth economies have moved upwards to higher value, high skill and high profitability levels and deindustrialising as they did so. This even applies to recent breakthrough economies like China and Vietnam. In each case, "financialization" has been an important element in the growth of the Quaternary economy, even in such relative newcomers as Vietnam, where privatization of services has attracted private equity and other foreign direct investment financiers. Thus manufacturing is less pronounced than it was. Meanwhile, South Korea has a weak international presence of banks and other financial sectors because of the domestic focus in its indigenous growth model. Other weaknesses of closed versus open innovation and "cronyism" at the behest of the Chaebol system can be laid at the door of South Korea's traditional conglomerates. A different model of "thin globalisation" led by knowledge-intensive high-tech, biotech and cleantech with prodigious financialization is characteristic of the new fast-growth regions and countries elsewhere, notably Israel, Silicon Valley and Cambridge. Here flattened hierarchies, reliable networking, and "crossover" innovation are pronounced and from which South Korean industrialists and policymakers could usefully learn to recover past growth performance.

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“…1) names milestones in biological evolution such as the emergence of eukaryotes, vertebrates, amphibians, mammals, primates, hominidae, and Homo sapiens, which show an accelerating trend. Following Good (1965) and Bostrom (to appear), Muehlhauser and Salamon (this volume), Arel (this volume), and Schmidhuber (this volume) describe developments in machine learning which seek to demonstrate that progressively more 'intelligent' problems have been solved during the past few decades, and how such technologies may further improve, possibly even in a recursive process of selfmodification. Some authors attempt to show that many of the above accounts of acceleration are in fact manifestations of an underlying law of nature (Adams 1904;Kurzweil 2005, Chaisson this volume): quantitatively or qualitatively measured, acceleration is commonly visualized as an upwards-curved mathematical graph which, if projected into the future, is said to be leading to a discontinuity.…”

Section: Towards a Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…from an 'intelligence explosion' (Good 1965): a process in which software-based intelligent minds enter a 'runaway reaction' of self-improvement cycles, with each new and more intelligent generation appearing faster than its predecessor. Part I of this volume is dedicated to essays which argue that progress in artificial intelligence and machine learning may indeed increase machine intelligence beyond that of any human being.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%