Spectral Analysis of the Daily Evolution of Deaths Due to COVID-19 in France and in the World Shows a Weekend Effect: Myth or Reality?

Constantinesco, A.; Israël-Jost, Vincent; Choquet, Philippe

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3619786

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Since most common uncertainties are related to the time frame between contagion, sampling, detection and report (temporal misclassification), recovery criteria (PCR or fix quarantine time after which the patient is considered healed), we suggest to perform a data-pretreatment stage, where delayed curves could be corrected to the day of contagion before applying moving averages to smooth trends and estimate their variability while R t . The use of an one-week averaging window is suggested for minimizing the impact of the “weekend-effect” ( 20 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19

Contreras

Villavicencio

Medina-Ortiz

et al. 2020

Front. Public Health

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In the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, policymakers need real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters. The Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) represents the number of secondary infections generated per each case and can be dramatically modified by applying effective interventions. However, current methodologies to calculate Rt from data remain somewhat cumbersome, thus raising a barrier between its timely calculation and application by policymakers. In this work, we provide a simple mathematical formulation for obtaining the effective reproduction number in real-time using only and directly daily official case reports, obtained by modifying the equations describing the viral spread. We numerically explore the accuracy and limitations of the proposed methodology, which was demonstrated to provide accurate, timely, and intuitive results. We illustrate the use of our methodology to study the evolution of the pandemic in different iconic countries, and to assess the efficacy and promptness of different public health interventions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19

Contreras

Villavicencio

Medina-Ortiz

et al. 2020

Front. Public Health

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show abstract

“…These sub-populations interact dynamically with each other, and the spreading modes are not necessarily isotropic [16] . Furthermore, our understanding of viral spread is greatly determined by data availability and quality, which has been proven to have significant delays [11] , weekly modulation [19] , and even weekend effects [5] , [10] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 in Chile

Freire-Flores

Llanovarced-Kawles

Sanchez-Daza

et al. 2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioral heterogeneity. In this work, we adapted a multi-group SEIRA model to study the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 in Chile, representing geographically separated regions of the country by different groups. We use national mobilization statistics to estimate the connectivity between regions and data from governmental repositories to obtain COVID-19 spreading and death rates in each region. We then assessed the effectiveness of different NPIs by studying the temporal evolution of the reproduction number . Analyzing data-driven and model-based estimates of , we found a strong coupling of different regions, highlighting the necessity of organized and coordinated actions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we evaluated different scenarios to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in the most densely populated regions, finding that the early lifting of restriction probably will lead to novel outbreaks.

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Spectral Analysis of the Daily Evolution of Deaths Due to COVID-19 in France and in the World Shows a Weekend Effect: Myth or Reality?

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19

Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19

On the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 in Chile

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