Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca, Spain)

Abstract

In the present work, spectral analysis has been applied to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles in long-term data series from different rainfall and gauging stations located in the Tramuntana Range, in the north-western sector of the island of Majorca. Climate signals recorded previously in the Mediterranean region have been identified: the ENSO, NAO, HALE, QBO and Sun Spot cycles as well as others related to solar activity; the most powerful signals correspond to the annual cycle, followed by the 6-month and NAO cycles. The incorporation of data derived from gauging stations contributes to better climate signal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also

Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution

“…We select 12 different extreme events: four cold spells, four heatwaves, and four extreme precipitations (see Table 1 for event descriptions and references Barriopedro et al., 2011; Beniston, 2004; Cattiaux & Ribes, 2018b; Davies, 2016a, 2016b, 2018a, 2018b; Fischer et al., 2007; Groenemeijer et al., 2017; Hauser et al., 2016; Janeković et al., 2014; Kew et al., 2019; LeComte, 2014; Luque‐Espinar et al., 2017; Menzel, 2005; Menzel et al., 2011; Otto et al., 2012; Philip et al., 2018; Russo et al., 2015; Rahmstorf & Coumou, 2011; Stott et al., 2004; Stéfanon et al., 2012; Unkašević & Tošić, 2015). The selection of these events is based on their socioeconomic impacts and is detailed in the supporting information S1.…”

A Dirichlet process model for change‐point detection with multivariate bioclimatic data

“…Regime lengths may be influenced by global atmospheric patterns and cycles. In southern Europe, and specifically in the Mediterranean region, natural cycles related to solar activity or global atmospheric dynamics can influence the climate pattern (Luque‐Espinar et al, 2017). Interannual cycles are related to seasonal changes and are accounted for by the model term , while biennial cycles may be linked to quasi‐Biennial oscillation (see Luque‐Espinar et al, 2017, and references therein).…”

“…In southern Europe, and specifically in the Mediterranean region, natural cycles related to solar activity or global atmospheric dynamics can influence the climate pattern (Luque‐Espinar et al, 2017). Interannual cycles are related to seasonal changes and are accounted for by the model term , while biennial cycles may be linked to quasi‐Biennial oscillation (see Luque‐Espinar et al, 2017, and references therein). More uncertainty affects the interpretation of longer cycles, for example, 5–6 years cycles may be a harmonic component of the 11‐year sunspot cycle or they may be due to Èl Niño effects.…”

Characteristics of Rainfall Events Triggering Landslides in Two Climatologically Different Areas: Southern Ecuador and Southern Spain

“…Using the global extension of teleconnections, the NAO has also had a significant influence on southern Spain, producing a decreasing trend in the annual rainfall in the western Mediterranean and a rising number and intensity of heavy storms of very short duration [61][62][63][64]. In the Tramuntana Range at the north-western part of the Majorca Island (central Mediterranean basin), [65] conducted a spectral analysis to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles. Thus, the analysis of different long-term rainfall series permitted the identification of ENSO, NAO, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Hale and Sun Spot cycles as other signals related to solar activity.…”

“…That is the case of the period 2008-2010, when the island of Majorca experienced the coldest and wettest winters of the last 40 years. Coinciding with the high NAO and ENSO values of that period, 66 mass movements occurred in the Tramuntana range [65,66].…”