Specification of Monthly Precipitation over the United States from the Surrounding 700 mb Height Field

Klein, William H.; Bloom, Howard

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2118:sompot>2.0.co;2

Cited by 64 publications

(38 citation statements)

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“…In a few studies, a search is made for the best set of geopotential height predictors (usually 3 to 5) to be included in a regression model (e.g. Klein & Bloom 1987, 1989. However, there is no interest in identifying 'the best', since the focus is on the combination of points that maximize the variance accounted for.…”

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confidence: 87%

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Local versus remote grid points in climate downscaling

Brinkmann

2002

Clim. Res.

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The association between daily as well as monthly winter precipitation and concurrent 700 hPa heights for 3 different North American precipitation regimes was examined using correlation fields and a typing of daily 700 hPa height patterns. Wet days, regardless of circulation type, were found to be associated with negative height anomalies immediately to the west or northwest of the precipitation regions, at the 'local' grid point. These small-scale height anomalies were found to represent traveling short waves that were missed by the circulation typing scheme. The correlation fields between monthly precipitation and concurrent 700 hPa heights revealed a westward shift of the height minima to a location west of 100°W, to a 'remote' grid point. The nature of these remote minima was examined using the 10 wettest and 10 driest months. Decomposition of the height anomalies at the remote grid points into between-type and within-type contributions revealed that while some of the negative heights during wet months are due to an increase in the frequency of circulation patterns with below normal heights (such as troughs or weak ridges), more than two-thirds of the contribution comes from height depressions superimposed upon the larger-scale patterns and most of these are associated with positive vorticity. This leads to the conclusion that the correlation minima west of 100°W at the monthly time scale reflect the frequent generation of short waves during wet months over the well-known North American cyclogenetic region east of the Rocky Mountains. These results have 2 implications with respect to statistical downscaling. First, regarding techniques designed to extract information from a single grid point: the optimum grid point location may be a function of the time scale under consideration. Second, regarding techniques designed to extract information from large-scale circulation patterns: the difficulties in capturing the very important but small short waves limit their usefulness. KEY WORDS: Precipitation · 700 hPa · Circulation pattern typing · North America · DownscalingResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 21: 27-42, 2002 cal to this approach since the circulation features of significance to the local climate need to be captured. Most investigators place the window over and to the west of the area of interest because weather systems travel from west to east. Using information from the nearest grid point also makes physical sense because the atmospheric conditions at the nearest point should be most similar to those over the area of interest. However, it has been shown that for some parts of the country the strongest correlation between local precipitation and geopotential heights is not at the nearest (local) but at a remote grid point (generally to the west of the area of interest).Specifically, Stidd (1954) computed correlation fields between 700 hPa heights and a series of state-wide precipitation totals for winter months and found that almost all of ...

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confidence: 87%

“…Walsh et al 1982, Klein & Bloom 1987, Bonsal et al 1999, Robertson & Ghil 1999. The location of the area of largest (negative) height anomalies or largest negative correlation coefficients on such maps agrees with those presented by Stidd (1954) and in K63.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local versus remote grid points in climate downscaling

Brinkmann

2002

Clim. Res.

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“…From the recent work of Klein and Bloom (1987), Kiladis and Diaz (1989), Cayan and Peterson (1989), Leathers et al (1991), and Lins (1993), among numerous others, it is clear that atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Pacific basin exert considerable influence on the low frequency patterns of North American climatic and hydrologic variability. Hirschboeck (1987) showed that there is linkage between anomalous circulation patterns and severe floods in the western, central, and eastern regions of the United States.…”

Section: The Great Salt Lake and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Non-parametric short-term forecasts of the Great Salt Lake using atmospheric indices

2007

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A multivariate, non-parametric model for approximating the non-linear dynamics of hydroclimatic variables is developed and applied for forecasting the volume of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) of Utah. The monthly volume of the GSL is presumed to depend on recent volumes of the lake, and on three atmospheric circulation indices. The indices considered are the Southern oscillation index (SOI), the pacific/North America (PNA) climatic index, and the central North Pacific (CNP) climatic index. Locally weighted polynomials with automatically and locally chosen parameters are used for developing a non-linear forecasting model. Estimated average mutual information (M.I) is used to select appropriate lags across each time series. Iterated and direct multi-step predictions of lake volumes for up to 2 years in the future with and without the atmospheric indices are compared. The atmospheric circulation information can lead to significant improvements in the predictability of the lake.

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“…For example, Klein and Bloom (1987) undertook to specify monthly precipitation over the United States from the monthly mean 70-kPa heights over North America and vicinity by applying a stepwise forward regression technique to 30 years of data. It is suggested that the results of our study might provide a useful diagnostic adjunct to such statistical techniques (if they were developed for Canada) particularly in regard to the assessment of where much above or much below normal precipitation is likely to occur.…”

Section: Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%