Abstract:A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species' traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species' traits… Show more
“…Individuals with longer development had higher fecundity, emigration probability, and dispersal distances than individuals with shorter developmental times over all environmental conditions. This positive association between development time and trait values is characteristic of most species with indeterminate growth, such as ectotherms and plants, which are the same groups of species range shifting most rapidly in response to climate change (Abrams et al 1996, Blanckenhorn , Blanckenhorn and Demont , Hickling et al 2006, Zeuss et al ). Effects of diapause on flight performance were not modelled because our experimental results indicated that these were negligible (Box 1).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The goal of our experiment and theoretical model was to generally explore the costs and benefits of different developmental strategies for the ability of populations to sustain a range shift into progressively harsher and more variable environments. This approach provides a focussed and timely assessment of the potential mechanisms by which these life history syndromes may facilitate or impede future biogeographic shifts and changes in community composition in response to ongoing climate change at high latitudes (Fitt and Lancaster ). We conducted an experiment to understand the costs associated with shifts in voltinism (developmental duration) during a range shift.…”
Many species are undergoing distributional shifts in response to climate change. However, wide variability in range shifting rates has been observed across taxa, and even among closely‐related species. Attempts to link climate‐mediated range shifts to traits has often produced weak or conflicting results. Here we investigate interactive effects of developmental processes and environmental stress on the expression of traits relevant to range shifts. We use an individual‐based modelling approach to assess how different developmental strategies affect range shift rates under a range of environmental conditions. We find that under stressful conditions, such as at the margins of the species’ fundamental niche, investment in prolonged development leads to the greatest rates of range shifting, especially when longer time in development leads to improved fecundity and dispersal‐related traits. However, under benign conditions, and when traits are less developmentally plastic, shorter development times are preferred for rapid range shifts, because higher generational frequency increases the number of individual dispersal events occurring over time. Our results suggest that the ability of a species to range shift depends not only on their dispersal and colonisation characteristics but also how these characteristics interact with developmental strategies. Benefits of any trait always depended on the environmental and developmental sensitivity of life history trait combinations, and the environmental conditions under which the range shift takes place. Without considering environmental and developmental sources of variation in the expression of traits relevant to range shifts, there is little hope of developing a general understanding of intrinsic drivers of range shift potential.
“…Individuals with longer development had higher fecundity, emigration probability, and dispersal distances than individuals with shorter developmental times over all environmental conditions. This positive association between development time and trait values is characteristic of most species with indeterminate growth, such as ectotherms and plants, which are the same groups of species range shifting most rapidly in response to climate change (Abrams et al 1996, Blanckenhorn , Blanckenhorn and Demont , Hickling et al 2006, Zeuss et al ). Effects of diapause on flight performance were not modelled because our experimental results indicated that these were negligible (Box 1).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The goal of our experiment and theoretical model was to generally explore the costs and benefits of different developmental strategies for the ability of populations to sustain a range shift into progressively harsher and more variable environments. This approach provides a focussed and timely assessment of the potential mechanisms by which these life history syndromes may facilitate or impede future biogeographic shifts and changes in community composition in response to ongoing climate change at high latitudes (Fitt and Lancaster ). We conducted an experiment to understand the costs associated with shifts in voltinism (developmental duration) during a range shift.…”
Many species are undergoing distributional shifts in response to climate change. However, wide variability in range shifting rates has been observed across taxa, and even among closely‐related species. Attempts to link climate‐mediated range shifts to traits has often produced weak or conflicting results. Here we investigate interactive effects of developmental processes and environmental stress on the expression of traits relevant to range shifts. We use an individual‐based modelling approach to assess how different developmental strategies affect range shift rates under a range of environmental conditions. We find that under stressful conditions, such as at the margins of the species’ fundamental niche, investment in prolonged development leads to the greatest rates of range shifting, especially when longer time in development leads to improved fecundity and dispersal‐related traits. However, under benign conditions, and when traits are less developmentally plastic, shorter development times are preferred for rapid range shifts, because higher generational frequency increases the number of individual dispersal events occurring over time. Our results suggest that the ability of a species to range shift depends not only on their dispersal and colonisation characteristics but also how these characteristics interact with developmental strategies. Benefits of any trait always depended on the environmental and developmental sensitivity of life history trait combinations, and the environmental conditions under which the range shift takes place. Without considering environmental and developmental sources of variation in the expression of traits relevant to range shifts, there is little hope of developing a general understanding of intrinsic drivers of range shift potential.
“…Theoretically, range expansion rates are determined by dispersal propensity, dispersal distance and population growth rate on the expanding range front (Kot et al 1996, Weiss-Lehman et al 2017. Evolution could mediate these factors, cause unexpected patterns of range expansion for many species and explain why some species are tracking suitable climates better than others under contemporary climate change (Chen et al 2011, Sunday et al 2012, Estrada et al 2015, MacLean and Beissinger 2017. Evolution could mediate these factors, cause unexpected patterns of range expansion for many species and explain why some species are tracking suitable climates better than others under contemporary climate change (Chen et al 2011, Sunday et al 2012, Estrada et al 2015, MacLean and Beissinger 2017.…”
Section: Single Species Eco-evolutionary Dynamics Cool Range Marginsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…First, range-margin populations might be most likely to evolve under climate change because they are often the first to experience novel selection. Last, many species' range margins are not shifting as predicted under climate change (Chen et al 2011, Sunday et al 2012, MacLean and Beissinger 2017. Third, species commonly respond to climate change via range shifts and therefore many ecological predictions and climate change conservation strategies focus on range margins (Davis and Shaw 2001, Heller and Zavaleta 2009, Schmitz et al 2015.…”
We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex ecoevolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range-front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco-evolutionary effects could cause a three-step, stop-and-go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This 'evolutionary extinction debt' could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco-evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco-evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology. ) and M. C. Urban (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3962-4091),
“…Climate and land‐use changes recorded in practically all of Earth's bioclimatic zones are dramatically affecting the distribution of many terrestrial, aquatic and marine organisms. Since the turn of the 21st century, various global meta‐analyses have quantified the fingerprint that global climate change (GCC) has already left on distribution ranges (Chen, Hill, Ohlemüller, Roy, & Thomas, ; MacLean & Beissinger, ; Parmesan, ; Parmesan & Yohe, ; Perry, Low, Ellis, & Reynolds, ) and extinction rates (Urban, ; Wiens, ). At present, models include some improvements to better predict changes in species distribution ranges due to GCC.…”
Global climate change (GCC) may be causing distribution range shifts in many organisms worldwide. Multiple efforts are currently focused on the development of models to better predict distribution range shifts due to GCC. We addressed this issue by including intraspecific genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of data in distribution range models. Both factors reflect the joint effect of ecoevolutionary processes on the geographical heterogeneity of populations. We used a collection of 301 georeferenced accessions of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana in its Iberian Peninsula range, where the species shows strong geographical genetic structure. We developed spatial and nonspatial hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs) to depict current and future distribution ranges for the four genetic clusters detected. We also compared the performance of HBMs with Maxent (a presence‐only model). Maxent and nonspatial HBMs presented some shortcomings, such as the loss of accessions with high genetic admixture in the case of Maxent and the presence of residual SAC for both. As spatial HBMs removed residual SAC, these models showed higher accuracy than nonspatial HBMs and handled the spatial effect on model outcomes. The ease of modelling and the consistency among model outputs for each genetic cluster was conditioned by the sparseness of the populations across the distribution range. Our HBMs enrich the toolbox of software available to evaluate GCC‐induced distribution range shifts by considering both genetic heterogeneity and SAC, two inherent properties of any organism that should not be overlooked.
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