Species' intrinsic traits inform their range limitations and vulnerability under environmental change

Abstract

Aim Understanding the factors that govern species' geographical ranges is of utmost importance for predicting potential range shifts triggered by environmental change. Species ranges are partially limited by their tolerances to extrinsic environmental conditions such as climate and habitat. However, they are also determined by the capacity of species to disperse, establish new populations and proliferate, which are in turn dependent on species intrinsic life‐history traits. So far, the contribution of intrinsic factors driving species distributions has been inconclusive, largely because intrinsic and extrinsic factors have not been examined simultaneously in a satisfactory way. We investigate how geographical ranges of plants are determined by both extrinsic environmental factors and species intrinsic life‐history traits. Location Europe. Methods We compiled a database on plant geographical ranges, environmental tolerances and life‐history traits that constitutes the largest dataset analysed to date (1276 species). We used generalized linear modelling to test if range size and range filling (the proportion of climatically suitable area a species occupies) are affected by dispersal distance, habitat breadth and 10 life‐history traits related to establishment and proliferation. Results The species characteristics that were most linked to range limitations of European plant species were dispersal potential, seed bank persistence and habitat breadth (which together explained ≥ 30% of deviance in range filling and range size). Specific leaf area, which has been linked to establishment ability, made a smaller contribution to native range limitations. Main conclusions Our results can be used to improve estimates of extinction vulnerability under climate change. Species with high dispersal capacity, that can maintain viable seed banks for several years and that can live in an intermediate number of habitats have the fewest non‐climatic limitations on their ranges, and are most likely to shift their geographical ranges under climate change. We suggest that climate‐change risk assessments should not focus exclusively on dispersal capacity.

Elevational Shifts of Freshwater Communities Cannot Catch up Climate Warming in the Himalaya

“…These climatic debts are similar to those observed in butterflies (62.4 m¨decade´1) and birds (56.7 m¨decade´1) in the Alps [10], but smaller than those reported for birds (117.8 km¨decade´1 along the latitudinal gradient, equivalent to 117.8 m¨decade´1 along the elevational gradient) and butterflies (equivalent to 75.0 m¨decade´1) by Devictor et al [8]. Actual climatic debts, i.e., not those inferred from SDMs, could arise when the low dispersal ability of species does not allow species to migrate with their suitable climate space [46], a change in species interactions [14] or a combination of both. Furthermore a perceived climatic debt might simply result from phenotypic plasticity that allows a species to persist under a different climate without a need to migrate [47].…”

Severe effects of long-term drought on calcareous grassland seed banks

“…Persistent seed banks have been suggested to be crucial to the range expansion of species under environmental shifts. 37 Moreover, they buffer the response of plant communities to altered precipitation regimes. 36 Therefore, seed banks are considered key determinants of ecosystem resistance and resilience, 27,40 based on the results of short-term climate manipulation experiments.…”

“…35 Therefore, seed banks are often thought to buffer the responses of plant communities to climate variation, 36 providing potential resilience to disturbance or environmental shifts, 31 and to decrease extinction vulnerability under climate change. 37 It is therefore crucial to discover whether these assumptions are correct for calcareous grassland communities.…”

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

“…Theoretically, range expansion rates are determined by dispersal propensity, dispersal distance and population growth rate on the expanding range front (Kot et al 1996, Weiss-Lehman et al 2017. Evolution could mediate these factors, cause unexpected patterns of range expansion for many species and explain why some species are tracking suitable climates better than others under contemporary climate change (Chen et al 2011, Sunday et al 2012, Estrada et al 2015, MacLean and Beissinger 2017. Evolution could mediate these factors, cause unexpected patterns of range expansion for many species and explain why some species are tracking suitable climates better than others under contemporary climate change (Chen et al 2011, Sunday et al 2012, Estrada et al 2015, MacLean and Beissinger 2017.…”