Species distribution modeling and machine learning in assessing the potential distribution of freshwater zooplankton in Northern Italy

Bellin, Nicolò; Tesi, Giacomo; Marchesani, Nicola; Rossi, Valeria

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101682

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…Now, the question is to what extent a bivoltine life cycle, WGP and TGP bounce back and/or weaken patterns represent a bet hedging strategy or a maladaptation. A model to simulate and compare univoltine and bivoltine life cycles of E. virens in predictable and unpredictable changing hydroperiod is needed to confirm our hypothesis and to evaluate the possible impact of warmer winter and drought due to climate change (Bellin & Rossi, 2024;Bellin et al, 2021Bellin et al, , 2022.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

To sleep or not to sleep: Dormancy and life history traits in Eucypris virens (Crustacea, Ostracoda)

Bellin,

Rossi

2024

J Exp Zool Pt A

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Dormancy represents an investment with its own costs and benefit. Besides the advantage obtained from the avoidance of harsh environments and from the synchronization of life cycles with seasonal changes, an organism could benefit from a temporary stop in growth and reproduction. To test this hypothesis a transgenerational experiment was carried out comparing the life history traits of clonal females of Eucypris virens from resting and non‐resting eggs at two different photoperiods: short day length (6:18 L:D), proxy of favorable but unpredictable late winter‐spring hydroperiod, and long day length (16:8 L:D) proxy of dry predictable unfavorable season, inducing resting egg production and within‐generation plasticity (WGP). Clonal females that were dormancy deprived showed the highest age at first deposition and the lowest fecundity. Dormancy seems to work as a resetting mechanism of reproduction. Transgenerational plasticity (TGP) had a bounce back pattern: the phenotype of F1 generation was influenced by cues experienced in the F0 generation but the effects of F0 exposure were not evident in the F2. TGP might be adaptive when a mother experiences some kind of seasonality or stochasticity producing both resting and nonresting eggs. A positive relationship between the number of resting eggs and the total number of eggs per females suggested the absence of trade‐off between dormancy and reproduction. Both WGP and TGP increase the mother long term fitness with important consequences on population dynamics, on the way a species spread throughout space and time and might respond to climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

To sleep or not to sleep: Dormancy and life history traits in Eucypris virens (Crustacea, Ostracoda)

Bellin,

Rossi

2024

J Exp Zool Pt A

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“…For each of the three gorgonian species, the partial response curve of the most important environmental variable was estimated considering the others as xed at their mean value and the environmental variable that showed the highest second order interaction term with the most important one was xed at the extremes and at the mean value of the environmental gradient (Bellin et al 2022).…”

Section: Pseudo-absences Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The distribution and abundance of gorgonians are increasingly threatened by several stressors, including global warming, seawater carbonate chemistry, the spread of alien species, and local anthropogenic activities (Cerrano et Here we explore a species distribution model framework combined with machine learning algorithms, to assess the potential environmental drivers that shape the distribution and habitat suitability at regional level of three gorgonian species P. clavata, E. cavolinii and E. singularis in the Mediterranean Sea. The modelling framework was used to identify the location and overlap of vulnerable habitats or areas in need of further sampling and to predict their future habitat suitability under the worst IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (Bellin et al 2022). Understanding of the distribution patterns of species in space and time is crucial for the identi cation of sites of special interest both inside and outside of existing marine protect areas and in the establishment of management and conservation actions and strategies (Fortin and Dale 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians

Bellin

Rossi

2023

Preprint

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Multiple stressors including global warming increasingly threaten the distribution and abundance of gorgonian forests. We built species distribution models (SDM) combined with machine learning algorithms, to compare the ecological niche of three Mediterranean gorgonian species (Paramuricea clavata, Eunicella cavolinii and Eunicella singularis) and distribution response to climate change under the worst IPCC scenario RCP8.5. Three Machine Learning models, XGBoost, Random Forest and the K-nearest neighbour, 23 physico-chemical and 4 geophysical environmental variables were used to obtain the potential habitat suitability and future projections (2040–2050) of their distribution in the Mediterranean Sea. The global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was used to identify the most important environmental variables shaping the habitat suitability of the species and to disentangle the interaction terms among different environmental variables. For all species, bathymetry was the main variable influencing habitat suitability, with higher interactions with silicate, salinity and concavity. In future climatic conditions, P. clavata was expected to shift its habitat suitability from lower to higher latitudes, mainly in the Adriatic Sea. For both E. cavolinii and E. singularis, a general habitat reduction was predicted. In particular, E. cavolinii was expected to reduce the occupancy area of 49% suggesting that the sensitivity of the symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) may not be the main responsible of the corresponding susceptibility of the holobiont to thermal stresses and climate change.

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Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians

Bellin,

Rossi

2024

Biodivers Conserv

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Species distribution modeling and machine learning in assessing the potential distribution of freshwater zooplankton in Northern Italy

Cited by 6 publications

References 82 publications

To sleep or not to sleep: Dormancy and life history traits in Eucypris virens (Crustacea, Ostracoda)

To sleep or not to sleep: Dormancy and life history traits in Eucypris virens (Crustacea, Ostracoda)

Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians

Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians

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