Species Distribution Based-Modelling Under Climate Change: The Case of Two Native Wild Olea europaea Subspecies in Morocco, O. e. subsp. europaea var. sylvestris and O. e. subsp. maroccana

Kassout, Jalal; Terral, Jean‐Frédéric; Ouahrani, Abdeltif El; Houssni, Mhammad; Ivorra, Sarah; Kadaoui, Khalil; Mahroussi, Mohamed El; Paradis, Laure; Ater, Mohammed

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-78566-6_2

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…sylvestris, are predicted to increase habitat suitability, while O. europaea subsp. maroccana shows substantial contraction in future climate (Kassout et al, 2022). This suggests that plant species behave differently in future climate projections, even at the subspecies level.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The species' distribution range reflects its adaptation to the Mediterranean-type climate of the world. Such a climate is considered one of the most vulnerable zones to global warming (Almeida et al, 2022;Kassout et al, 2022). The current distribution range is stretched across many regions of all the continents, especially prominent parts of the southern hemisphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Khan

Verma

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Climate change is one of the significant factors influencing global species redistribution. As a result, a better understanding of the species' possible range change in future climate conditions is needed. Therefore, this study compiles global geographic occurrence data of a wild olive sub-species, Olea europaea subsp. cuspidate, and projected potential distribution models in current and future climate scenarios. This study using ensemble modeling predicted that the species will undergo a significant decrease in habitat suitability under future climatic conditions with a contraction ranging from ca. 41 and 42% under RCP4.5 2050 and to about 56 and 61% under RCP8.5 2070 for committee averaging and weighted mean, respectively. More specifically, there will be a decrease in habitat suitability in regions of the southeastern part of the United States in North America; coastal regions in South America; coastal regions in the majority of eastern Africa; coastal parts of Spain, France, Italy, and Greece in Europe; coastal parts of Yemen and Saudi Arabia; the southeastern parts of Pakistan and the southern part of China in Asia; and southwestern and eastern parts of Australia when compared to current habitat suitability. The results of this ensemble modeling could be extremely valuable in identifying cultivation hotspots for the effective restoration and protection of this olive lineage under future climatic conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Khan

Verma

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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“…The ongoing global warming is already altering plant species growth and geographical distribution (Doblas-Miranda et al 2017; Vellend et al 2017; Kassout et al 2022a). In fact, with the current rapid rate of warming, global temperature is expected to reach +1.5°C between 2030 and 2050 (IPCC 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, a considerable number of SDMs method were available and widely used such as, BIOCLIM (bioclimatic modeling), Domain (domain environmental envelope), GAM (generalized additive models), MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines) and MaxEnt (Maximum entropy) (Pecchi et al 2019). Among theme, MaxEnt algorithm (Phillips et al 2006) provides reliable results of suitability when presence-only data are available and high exibility to deal with both widely distributed and rare species occurrences (Elith et al 2006; Moukrim et al 2019; Kassout et al 2022a). For instance, the maximum entropy model has been used to predict macroecological patterns (Harte 2011), species abundance distributions (White et al 2012), trait-based community assembly (Shipley et al 2011) and species ecological niche models at multiple scales (Elith et al 2010;Guisan et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on the distribution of the native Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L.) in Morocco

Kassout,

Chakkour,

Ouahrani

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Climate change is expected to alter many natural ecosystems around the world, by affecting plants growth and distribution. This is particularly emphasized for several Mediterranean plant species and communities. In this study, we investigate the suitable habitat and geographical distribution of a remarkable Mediterranean tree, Ceratonia siliqua L. (Leguminosae), in Morocco. We hypothesized a reduction in the carob tree suitable habitats under climate change scenarios. To this end, we applied the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) to generate current and future models using 303 occurrence points coupled with 19 bioclimatic variables. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by 2050 and 2070 were considered as future input scenarios. The maximum entropy model provides satisfactory results, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.987 (±0.001). Jackknife tests indicate that precipitation followed by temperature play a significant role in the biogeographical dynamics of the Moroccan carob tree. Thus, the obtained results confirm our hypothesis of a reduction of the suitable area under the projected climate change scenarios by 2050 and 2070. The approaches developed in this study is promising to predict the potential distribution of native Mediterranean species and can be an effective tool to support conservation and restoration programs.

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“…Therefore, the observed diversity in olive cultivars is a critical component in preserving and maintaining the productivity of olive-based agroecosystems under various environmental conditions. However, in the face of global changes, it is crucial to understand how olive cultivars will respond to environmental changes, especially drought (Khadari et al, 2019;Kassout et al, 2022). The ability of olive trees to adapt to changing environmental conditions will impact their longterm viability, making this an important area of research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of deficit irrigation strategies on agronomic and productive parameters of Menara olive cultivar: implications for operational water management

Sikaoui

2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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The olive tree is an iconic tree in the Mediterranean region, traditionally cultivated under rainfed conditions; however, olive cultivars are also found outside the Mediterranean region and are widely used for oil and olive production. However, with the increasing aridity and global changes, olive agroecosystems are facing sustainability challenges. This study aims to evaluate the effect of two deficit irrigation strategies on the agronomic and productive parameters of the Menara, olive cultivar as a tool for operational irrigation water management. For this purpose, an experiment was conducted on an olive orchard for two consecutive years (2021 and 2022), comparing four regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) treatments and two sustained deficit irrigation (SDI) treatments, with fully irrigated trees. The results showed that moderate and controlled water stress under RDI did not significantly affect the yield of the Menara olive cultivar. In addition, by reducing plant water requirement by 20% during sensitive periods and by 40% during normal periods, under RDI, it is possible to save between 25% and 30% of irrigation water and to increase water productivity by 5%–20% with a slight decrease in fruit yield ranging between 10% and 15%. However, the trees subjected to the sustained deficit irrigation strategy exhibited a reduced capacity for shoot growth compared to those under RDI and fully irrigated conditions. Our findings showed that water deprivation during sensitive periods reduced phenological traits and slowed down shoot growth. Furthermore, the water status of the trees was reflected in fruit volume, as a decrease in water supply resulted in a corresponding reduction in fruit volume. Although the study provides important insights into water management strategies for olive cultivation, the short observation period does not allow for long-term plant adaptation evaluation and productivity beyond 2 years. Therefore, it is recommended that future studies extend the observation period to better understand plant adaptation to irrigation regimes.

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Species Distribution Based-Modelling Under Climate Change: The Case of Two Native Wild Olea europaea Subspecies in Morocco, O. e. subsp. europaea var. sylvestris and O. e. subsp. maroccana

Cited by 9 publications

References 100 publications

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Effects of climate change on the distribution of the native Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L.) in Morocco

Assessing the impact of deficit irrigation strategies on agronomic and productive parameters of Menara olive cultivar: implications for operational water management

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