Special relationships in flux: Brexit and the future of the US-EU and US-UK relationships

Abstract

A British exit from the EU would add to growing strains on the United States’ relations with Britain and the rest of Europe, but by itself would not lead to a breakdown in transatlantic relations due to the scale of shared ideas and interests, institutional links, international pressures and commitments by individual leaders. It would, however, add to pressures on the US that could change the direction of the transatlantic relationship. From the perspective of Washington, Britain risks becoming an awkward inbetweener, beholden more than ever before to a wider transatlantic relationship where the US and EU are navigating the challenges of an emerging multipolar world. The article outlines developments in the UK, EU, Europe and the US in order to explain what Brexit could mean for the United States’ approaches to transatlantic relations. By doing so the article moves beyond a narrow view of Brexit and transatlantic relations that focuses on the future of UK–US relations. In the conclusion we map out several ways in which US views of the transatlantic relationship could be changed.

Welfare implications of EU Effort Sharing Decision and possible impact of a hard Brexit

“…Also, as in other economic affairs and international cooperations there is a possibility for the UK to cooperate with the USA in creating or reinforcing bilateral partnerships (Oliver and Williams, 2016), and, thus, mitigating this cost increase. In any case, a possible exclusion of the UK from an EU CO 2 market would reinforce the leadership role of the EU founding MSs, in particular for Germany (Oliver, 2016), which emits now about a quarter of aggregated EU GHG emissions.…”

The world after Brexit: From British referendum to global adventure

“…In the case of the USA this could entail discussion of what a Brexit could mean for NATO (of which more below), and the future of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) (Oliver and Williams, 2016). Britain will need to secure full WTO membership as opposed to being a member via the EU.…”

“…Brexit is not going to end, at least in the short term, the close security links that are the heart of the UK-US special relationship. Nor does Brexit mean the USA will give up on the EU or its long-standing support for European integration (Oliver and Williams, 2016). Brexit has, however, forfeited Britain's right to claim 'primus inter pares' in the EU when it comes to relations with the USA.…”

Goodbye Britannia? The International Implications of Britain’s Vote to Leave the Eu

“…Focusing on what a Brexit might mean for the UK-US 'Special Relationship' or accusing Britain of being an 'American Trojan Horse' set to weaken the EU or make it serve the USA, deflects attention from the close relations the USA has with any number of other European states such as Ireland or Germany (Oliver and Williams, 2016). The sheer economic size of the EU -which without the UK would have a collective GDP of €12 trillion compared to Britain's €2.6 trillion -means collective US-EU economic relations would overshadow those with Britain.…”

“…Policy-makers in Washington D.C., in particular, have long worried that a Brexit will add to Europe's divisions and security weaknesses or turn it inwards. A focus in UK political debate on US-UK relations -'the special relationship' -too often distracts from how thinking about the wider transatlantic relationship is shaping the response of the USA to Brexit (Oliver and Williams, 2016).…”