Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation concentration and their potential links to drought in mainland China

Guo, Enliang; Wang, Yongfang; Jirigala, Buren; Jin, Eerdemutu

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122004

Cited by 40 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 45 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…7 ). This interesting result was also obtained by Guo et al ( 2020b ), who found that daily precipitation concentrations and monthly precipitation concentrations showed different sensitivities to droughts. This highlights the need to develop new precipitation unevenness indexes based on event risks, which will inevitably result in another layer of complications (Pendergrass and Knutti 2018 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Furthermore, the differences in RE D among all scenarios were small, which also meant that the differences in effective rainy days were small. In the base scenario, the precipitation unevenness trend was negative, which was also found by Guo et al ( 2020b ) despite their use of different indicators. A similar finding was obtained by Chen ( 2020 ), who observed that the trend was not significant ( p > 0.1).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 74%

“…Generally, accelerating temperature rises will lead to faster development in extreme rainfall than the average, meaning that the precipitation unevenness will intensify (Chen 2020 ; Collins et al 2013 ; Pendergrass and Knutti 2018 ). However, the current results were inconsistent, and inconsistencies were also found in some long-term observation records in other regions (Guo et al 2020b ; Wang et al 2019 ). One possible reason for this result may be that the temporal correlation was not considered in previously used precipitation unevenness indexes.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 69%

“…The easternmost part is adjacent to Bohai Bay. Controlled by tropical and midlatitude climate systems, the precipitation in the DQRB varies significantly, making it one of the areas with the most uneven seasonal variations (Guo et al 2020b ; Konapala et al 2020 ; Zhang et al 2019b ). The DQRB has a typical temperate continental monsoon climate with annual precipitation of 500–700 mm; approximately 80% of the precipitation occurs during the months of June–September.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures

Gao

Liu

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding dynamic future changes in precipitation can provide prior information for nonpoint source pollution simulations under global warming. However, the evolution of the dependence structure and the unevenness characteristics of precipitation are rarely considered. This study applied a two-stage bias correction to daily precipitation and max/min temperature data in the Daqing River Basin (DQRB) with the HadGEM3-RA climate model. Validated from 1981 to 2015, future scenarios under two emission paths covering 2031–2065 and 2066–2100 were projected to assess variations in both the amount and unevenness of precipitation. The results suggested that, overall, the two-stage bias correction could reproduce the marginal distributions of variables and the evolution process of the dependence structure. In the future, the amount of precipitation in the plains is expected to increase more than that in the mountains, while precipitation unevenness, as measured by relative entropy, shows a slight increase in the mountains and a decrease in the plains, with enhanced seasonality. Conditioned on rising temperatures, high-/low-intensity precipitation tends to intensify/weaken precipitation unevenness. Additionally, the potential application of the bias correction method used herein and the possible impacts of uneven precipitation on nonpoint source pollution are given for further analyses. This study can provide useful information for future nonpoint source pollution simulations in the DQRB. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-16066-9.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 69%

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures

Gao

Liu

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the other hand, as a result of global warming the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water has been increased which lead to an increase in the global precipitation [4][5][6][7][8][9]. In this context, a common way to have a knowledge of future extreme precipitation events is to investigate the trend in the longduration time series of historical records [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. On the other hand, using the outputs of climate models such as global circulation models (GCMs) can provide a more reliable and more realistic picture of the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

show abstract

Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China

Guo

Zhang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global warming has altered the uniformity of precipitation in Inner Mongolia, China, eventually leading to droughts. Further studies are necessary to determine the relationship between the concentration of precipitation and drought.Therefore, we assessed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Inner Mongolia in the past and predict changes in the three indices under different scenarios in the future (2018-2100) using measured model data and Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The correlation between PCD/PCP and SPEI was explored using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results showed that the spatial distribution of PCD and PCP in Inner Mongolia exhibited significant east-west differences. The PCD values were 0.42-0.76, with high-value areas in the east. PCD showed a decreasing trend in both historical and future scenarios, indicating an even distribution of precipitation and an increased risk of drought. The PCP values were 190 -226 , with high-value areas mainly in the western region. Except for in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, PCP values in the historical and RCP2.6 scenarios showed a decreasing trend, indicating an earlier onset of maximum precipitation. SPEI values ranged between −1.23 and 1.17, with all future scenarios showing a decreasing trend and the historical scenario showing an increasing trend. The stations with positive correlation between SPEI and PCD accounted for 89.13, 67.39, 91.3, and 95.65% of Inner Mongolia, while those with positive correlation with PCP accounted for 43.47, 60.87, 56.52, and 4.35%, indicating that the correlation between drought variation and precipitation concentration is strong. These results can help reduce and prevent droughts and floods caused by changes in precipitation patterns and provide a basis for the rational use of water resources for preventing droughts and making relief decisions.

show abstract

Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation concentration and their potential links to drought in mainland China

Cited by 40 publications

References 45 publications

Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures

Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About