Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall linked to ground water level under changing climate in northwestern region, Bangladesh

Zannat, Fatematuz; Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul; Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur

doi:10.34154/2019-ejgs-0101-35-56/euraass

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Coefficient of Variability (CV) Coefficient of variation (CV) is a measure of how the individual data points vary about the mean. The spatial analysis method is able to account for both spatial and temporal variability in time series data [24]. Hence, in this study the coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated for the annual and seasonal rainfalls in order to see how variable they are.…”

Section: 23mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysing Trends and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Precipitation in the Main Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia

Hailesilassie¹,

Ayenew²,

Tekleab³

2021

EESRJ

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This study aims to investigate trends and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation during the period of 1980-2015 in the Main Central Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen’s Slope (SS) estimation were used to detect the trends and magnitudes respectively. The Inverse Distance Weighting method was employed for spatial interpolations. The results revealed that the rainfalls had experienced less concentrated and highly variable in the central rift floor. The trend analysis showed that out of 21 stations, 4 stations (Koshe, Bulbula, Kofole and Shashamane) in annual; six stations (Koshe, Bulbula, Tora, Wulberg, Wondogenet, and Shashamane) in spring; and only one station (Shashamane) in summer showed significantly decreasing trends with -4.5 to -15.59 mm/year range. All stations in spring rainfall revealed no positive trends. Conversely, in both annual and summer rainfall statistically significant increasing trends exhibited for Ejersalelle and Adamitulu with 6.4 to 7.94mm/year range. In monthly time scales, the significant decreasing and increasing trends were also investigated for a few stations. Increasing trends could lead to an increase in potential for water resources whereas variability and decreasing trends could boost over-exploitation of water resources. This study would be provided useful information for management of water resources in the study area.

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Section: 23mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is based on the assumption that the weighted average of known values within the neighbourhood is used to estimate the value of a nonsampled point. Moreover, Zannat et al [28] also pointed out that IDW is a very flexible spatial interpolation method. It is easy to use to interpolate spatial distribution.…”

Section: 24mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing Trends and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Precipitation in the Main Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia

Hailesilassie¹,

Ayenew²,

Tekleab³

2021

EESRJ

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“…Areas with CV > 30% are said to be vulnerable to drought. This can be applied in various studies (Teyso et al, 2016;Tamirat, 2018;Zannat et al, 2019). Therefore, in this study CV was used to identify the variations in annual and seasonal rainfall.…”

Section: Precipitation Variability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is based on the assumption that the weighted average of known values within the neighborhood is used to estimate the value of a non-sampled point. Moreover, Zannat et al (2019) also pointed out that IDW is a very flexible spatial interpolation method. It is easy to use to interpolate spatial distribution.…”

Section: Spatial Distribution Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Variability of Precipitation: Implications for Water Resources in Lake Ziway Watershed, Central Ethiopian Rift

2020

JEES

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Precipitation is the significant climatic variable that governs the availability of water resources in the country, Ethiopia, but it is highly erratic and variable in spatial-temporal scales. The purpose of this paper was to analyse trends and variability of rainfall at seasonal to annual sales in the Ziway Lake Watershed. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope (SS) estimation were used to detect the trends and compute the magnitudes of slopes respectively. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) was employed to reveal the variations in rainfall. The spatial interpolations mapping was made by using IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting). The results revealed that the western Ziway Lake watershed had experienced more rainfall variability than the eastern Ziway Lake watershed. The results also indicated that the annual and summer rainfall did not exhibit significant evidence of a monotonic trend. On the other hand, almost all rainfall stations in the spring season revealed decreasing trends (significant and non-significant), for instance, there are three stations (Ogalcho, Butajira, and Koshe) showed significantly decreasing trends at 5% of significant level and the two stations (Kulumsa and Meki) indicates significantly decreasing trends at 10% significant level. Moreover, the magnitudes of slope (changes in mm/year) estimated by SS for stations in the spring season that display significantly decreasing trends were as follows: -8.702, -6.58, -4.018, and -3.681,-3.667 for Butajira, Koshe, Kulumsa, Ogalcho, and Meki respectively. Droughts can be expected to increase if the decline precipitation trend continues. This could lead to over-exploitation of the water resources. The similarities in patterns of the intra-annual variability of precipitation and river discharges imply that any changes in rainfall pattern would have effects on water availability. The results of this investigation can significantly contribute to guiding water managers and decision-makers for more efficient water resources planning and management.

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“…When groundwater withdrawal exceeds the natural recharge to groundwater storage for a long time in a considerable area, the declination of GWL occurs. The falling trends of groundwater levels indicate that groundwater exploitation exceeds the recharge, indicating unsustainable withdrawal (Zannat et al 2019). The GWL declining rate is higher in the northern region than in the southern part (Sumiya and Khatun 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing and forecasting of groundwater level fluctuation in Joypurhat district, northwest Bangladesh, using wavelet analysis and ARIMA modeling

Rashid¹,

Alamgir

Ahmed³

et al. 2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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Groundwater resource plays a crucial role for agricultural crop production and socio-economic development in some parts of the world including Bangladesh. Joypurhat district, the northwest part of Bangladesh, a crop production hub, is entirely dependent on groundwater irrigation. A precise assessment and prediction of groundwater level (GWL) can assist long-term GWR management, especially in drought-prone agricultural regions. Therefore, this study was carried out to identify trends and magnitude of GWL fluctuation (1980-2019) using the Modified Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt's Test, and Sen Slope estimators in the drought-prone Joypurhat district, northwest Bangladesh. Time-series data analysis was performed to forecast GWL from 2020 to 2050 using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The findings of the MMK test revealed a significant declining trend of GWL, and the trend turning points were identified in the years 1991, 1993, 1997, and 2004, respectively. Results also indicate that the declining rate of GWL varied from 0.104 m/yr to 0.159 m/yr and the average rate of GWL declination was 0.136 m/yr during 1980-2019. The outcomes of wavelet spectrum analysis depicted two significant periods of the declining trend in Khetlal and Akkelpur Upazilas. The results obtained from the optimal identified model ARIMA (2,1,0), indicating that GWL will decline at a depth of 13.76 m in 2050, and the average declination rate of GWL will be 0.143 m/yr in the study area. The predicted results showed a similar declining tendency of GWL from 2020 to 2050, suggesting a disquieting condition, particularly for Khetlal Upazila. This research would provide a practical approach for GWL assessment and prediction that could help decisionmakers implement long-term GWR management in the study area.

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Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall linked to ground water level under changing climate in northwestern region, Bangladesh

Cited by 22 publications

References 33 publications

Analysing Trends and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Precipitation in the Main Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia

Analysing Trends and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Precipitation in the Main Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia

Trends and Variability of Precipitation: Implications for Water Resources in Lake Ziway Watershed, Central Ethiopian Rift

Assessing and forecasting of groundwater level fluctuation in Joypurhat district, northwest Bangladesh, using wavelet analysis and ARIMA modeling

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