Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam During 1980–2017

Quan, Nguyen Trong; Khôi, Đào Nguyên; Xuan, Hoan Nguyen; Phung, Nguyen Ky; Dang, Thanh Duc

doi:10.1007/s13753-020-00311-9

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(68 reference statements)

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“…Thus, von Storch [32] proposed the use of pre-whitening method to eliminate the serial correlation in time series. Among the several variations of prewhitening, the TFPW [33], which has been widely used by researchers in the field of hydrometeorology [23,29,30,34,35], was used in this study.…”

Section: Trend-free Pre-whitening (Tfpw) Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To help interpret the results from several indices in an orderly manner, each index was assigned to different classifications, and are summarized in Table 2. Some of the index classifications (i.e., precipitation intensity, precipitation frequency, and frequency duration) used in this study were adapted from the classifications previously presented by Quan et al [23].…”

Section: Extreme Climate Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The trends in datasets can either be monotonic, where a variable consistently increases or decreases through time, or a step trend, where abrupt changes in data may occur at a specific time. Various studies on trend analysis of climate parameters [11][12][13][15][16][17][18][19][21][22][23], used the two non-parametric tests known as the Mann-Kendall trend test, and Theil-Sen slope test, to detect significant trends, and to quantify the magnitude of trends, respectively.…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A set of standard measurements of the extreme climate indices based daily precipitation, and daily (minimum and maximum) temperatures were provided by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) [9,10]. For the past two decades, studies on trend analysis of ETCCDI indices [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23], has been widely performed in different regions around the globe, through the use of Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test [24][25][26] and Theil-Sen (TS) slope estimator [27,28], both tests are rank-based non-parametric tests, that are insensitive to outliers and missing data. These recent studies were analyzed based on various temporal scales, ranging from annual [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23], seasonal [13,[17][18][19], and monthly [19] time scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the past two decades, studies on trend analysis of ETCCDI indices [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23], has been widely performed in different regions around the globe, through the use of Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test [24][25][26] and Theil-Sen (TS) slope estimator [27,28], both tests are rank-based non-parametric tests, that are insensitive to outliers and missing data. These recent studies were analyzed based on various temporal scales, ranging from annual [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23], seasonal [13,[17][18][19], and monthly [19] time scales. While, majority of the studies focused on annual scales, and lesser on monthly scales, the former is insufficient in providing detailed information in a watershed, such as detecting shifting of precipitation patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detailed Trend Analysis of Extreme Climate Indices in the Upper Geum River Basin

Felix

Kim

Choi³

et al. 2021

Water

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To investigate the recent effects of climate change in the upper Geum River basin in South Korea, a detailed trend analysis of 17 extreme climate indices based on 33 years (1988–2020) of daily precipitation, and daily (minimum and maximum) temperature data has been analyzed in this study. Out of the 17 extreme climate indices, nine (eight) indices were based on temperature (precipitation) data. Trend analysis based on detailed temporal scales (annual, seasonal, monthly) were performed through the Mann–Kendall trend test and the Theil–Sen slope method. Furthermore, the Mann–Whitney–Pettit test was also applied in this study, to detect abrupt changes in the extreme climate indices. Based on the results of this study, the climate conditions at the upper Geum River basin for the past three decades can be summarized as follows: general increase in temperature intensity, decrease in cold duration, increased heat duration, increased precipitation intensity, and increased consecutive wet and dry durations. Furthermore, a prolonged summer season (shorter spring, and autumn periods) and precipitation shifts, were detected based on trend analysis results of seasonal, and monthly time scales. The results presented in this study can provide supplementary data for improving watershed management strategies in the upper Geum River basin.

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Section: Trend-free Pre-whitening (Tfpw) Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Extreme Climate Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Detailed Trend Analysis of Extreme Climate Indices in the Upper Geum River Basin

Felix

Kim

Choi³

et al. 2021

Water

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Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system

Main,

Sparrow,

Weisheimer

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

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Dengue fever is a source of substantial health burden in Vietnam. Given the well‐established influence of temperature and precipitation on vector biology and disease transmission, predictions of meteorological variables, such as those issued by ECMWF as a world‐leading provider of global ensemble forecasts, are likely to be valuable model inputs to a future dengue early warning system. In the absence of established verification at municipal and regional scales, this study assesses the skill of rainy season (May–October) ensemble precipitation and 2‐m temperature retrospective forecasts over North and South Vietnam initialized for dates during the period 2001–2020, evaluated against the ERA5 reanalysis for the same period. Forecasts are found to be significantly skilful compared with both climatology and persistence for lead times up to 10 days, including for cumulative precipitation values considered against independent rain gauge data. Rank histograms demonstrate that ensembles generally avoid excessive bias and consistently positive CRPSS values indicate substantial skill for temperature and cumulative precipitation forecasts for all spatial scales considered, despite differences in rainy season characteristics between North and South Vietnam. This forecast reliability demonstrates that meteorological input data based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts would add appreciably more value to the development of a future dengue early warning system compared to reference forecasts like climatology or persistence. These results raise hope for further exploration of predictive skill for relevant meteorological variables, particularly focused on their downscaling to produce district‐level epidemiological forecasts for urban areas where dengue is most prevalent.

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On the use of an innovative trend analysis methodology for temporal trend identification in extreme rainfall indices over the Central Highlands, Vietnam

Phuong

Huyen

Liem

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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Understanding past changes in the characteristics of climate extremes (such as frequency, intensity, and duration) forms an essential part of viable countermeasures to cope with climate-induced risks under a rapidly warming world. Thus, this paper endeavored to explore possible non-monotonic trend components in heavy rainfall events over the Central Highlands of Vietnam by employing the Şen's innovative trend analysis (ITA) method in conjunction with the well-defined extreme rainfall indices developed by the Joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The outcomes show that the overall trends in most extreme rainfall indices exhibited significant increases at several stations. Moreover, the high-value subgroups of most analyzed indices (such as maximum 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5day), simple daily intensity index (SDII), very wet days (R95p), extremely wet days (R99p), number of extremely heavy precipitation days (R50mm), and consecutive dry days (CDD)) were characterized mainly by significant increasing trends, thereby implying that heavy rainfall events have become more frequent and intense over recent decades. Some stations also exposed significant increasing trend behaviors in a given extreme index within all low-, medium-, and high-value subgroups. In general, it is expected that these findings yield more insightful knowledge on rainfall extremes to local decision-makers and other stakeholders.

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Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam During 1980–2017

Cited by 19 publications

References 52 publications

Detailed Trend Analysis of Extreme Climate Indices in the Upper Geum River Basin

Detailed Trend Analysis of Extreme Climate Indices in the Upper Geum River Basin

Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system

On the use of an innovative trend analysis methodology for temporal trend identification in extreme rainfall indices over the Central Highlands, Vietnam

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