Spatiotemporal Patterns and Risk Zoning of Wildfire Occurrences in Northeast China from 2001 to 2019

Abstract

Wildfires, a recurring and persistent natural disaster, present direct threats to both ecological balance and human safety. Despite the northeastern region of China boasting abundant forest resources, it grapples with a significant wildfire issue. This study, focused on China’s northeastern region, employs sophisticated methodologies, including the Mann–Kendall (MK) mutation test, sliding t-test, and geographical heat maps, to unveil the spatial distribution and temporal trends of wildfires. Furthermore, a random forest model is utilized to develop a wildfire susceptibility map, enabling an in-depth analysis of the relationships between various potential factors and wildfires, along with an assessment of the significance of these driving factors. The research findings indicate that wildfires in the northeastern region exhibit distinct seasonality, with the highest occurrences in the autumn and spring and fewer incidents in the summer and winter. Apart from the spring season, historical wildfires show a decreasing trend during other seasons. Geographically, wildfires tend to cluster, with over half of the high-risk areas concentrated at the junction of the Greater Khingan Mountains and Lesser Khingan Mountains in the northeastern region. The random forest model assumes a pivotal role in the analysis, accurately identifying both natural and human-induced factors, including topography, climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic elements. This research further discloses that climate factors predominantly influence wildfires in the northeastern region, with sunshine duration being the most influential factor. In summary, this study highlights the variation in various wildfire-driving factors, providing the basis for tailored management strategies and region-specific fire prevention. Through a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfires and associated risk factors, this research offers valuable insights for mitigating wildfire risks and preserving the region’s ecological integrity.