Spatiotemporal patterns and prediction of landscape ecological security in Xishuangbanna from 1996–2030

Abstract

In recent years, the landscape ecological security of Xishuangbanna in southwest China has become an essential factor affecting the cross-border ecological security in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Based on the change of land use in Xishuangbanna, with the help of "3S" technology, landscape ecology theory, and gray prediction model, the spatial and developmental trends of landscape ecological security in Xishuangbanna from 1996–2030 could be determined. In more than 20 years, the woodland landscape area in Xishuangbanna decreased, and the fragmentation of construction land has increased overall. In 1996, the overall landscape ecological safety was good, with 63.5% of the total area of grade I and II. In 2003, the proportion of the grade I and grade II areas decreased, with landscape ecological security problems appearing. In 2010, the overall landscape ecological security area reached 74.5%, the largest proportion in more than 20 years. The grade V area accounted for only 9% and was mainly distributed on the border of Menghai County and central Jinghong City. In 2017, The grade IV and V areas was further increased, and the ecological security problem intensified. The prediction results showed that from 2023 to 2030, the regions of grades I and II increased, but the proportion of level V regions increased. Furthermore, the grade IV transformed to grade V rapidly, reaching its highest value in more than 20 years. From 1996 to 2030, the landscape ecological security space significantly evolved, showing an evident "east-south" trend in movement and eventually shifting to the southeast.