Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants for Newly Reported HIV/AIDS Among Older Adults in Eastern China From 2004 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis Study

Abstract

Background In recent years, the number and proportion of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among older adults have increased dramatically. However, research on the pattern of temporal and spatial changes in newly reported HIV/AIDS among older adults remains limited. Objective This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS cases and its influencing factors among older adults in Eastern China from 2004 to 2021, with the goal of improving HIV/AIDS prevention and intervention. Methods We extracted data on newly reported HIV/AIDS cases between 2004 and 2021 from a case-reporting system and used a Joinpoint regression model and an age-period-cohort model to analyze the temporal trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression models were used for spatial aggregation and influence factor analysis. Results A total of 12,376 participants with HIV/AIDS were included in the study. The newly reported HIV infections among older adults increased from 0.13 cases per 100,000 people in 2004 to 7.00 cases per 100,000 people in 2021. The average annual percent change in newly reported HIV infections was 28.0% (95% CI –21.6% to 34.8%). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that age, period, and cohort factors affected the newly reported HIV infections among older adults. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) had spatial clustering, and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in Hangzhou. The disposable income of urban residents, illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and number of hospital beds per 1000 residents showed a positive association with the newly reported HIV infections among older MSM in the Zhejiang province. Conclusions HIV/AIDS among older adults showed an increasing trend and was influenced by age, period, and cohort effects. Older MSM with HIV/AIDS showed regional clustering and was associated with factors such as the disposable income of urban residents, the illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and the number of hospital beds per 1000 people. Targeted prevention and control measures are needed to reduce HIV infection among those at higher risk.