Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing, China, 2005–2014

Abstract

Objective: To probe the spatiotemporal patterns of the incidence of scarlet fever in Beijing, China, from 2005 to 2014. Methods: A spatiotemporal analysis was conducted at the district/county level in the Beijing region based on the reported cases of scarlet fever during the study period. Moran’s autocorrelation coefficient was used to examine the spatial autocorrelation of scarlet fever, whereas the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used to determine the hotspot incidence of scarlet fever. Likewise, the space-time scan statistic was used to detect the space-time clusters, including the relative risk of scarlet fever incidence across all settings. Results: A total of 26,860 scarlet fever cases were reported in Beijing during the study period (2005–2014). The average annual incidence of scarlet fever was 14.25 per 100,000 population (range, 6.76 to 32.03 per 100,000). The incidence among males was higher than that among females, and more than two-thirds of scarlet fever cases (83.8%) were among children 3–8 years old. The seasonal incidence peaks occurred from March to July. A higher relative risk area was mainly in the city and urban districts of Beijing. The most likely space-time clusters and secondary clusters were detected to be diversely distributed in every study year. Conclusions: The spatiotemporal patterns of scarlet fever were relatively unsteady in Beijing from 2005 to 2014. The at-risk population was mainly scattered in urban settings and dense districts with high population, indicating a positive relationship between population density and increased risk of scarlet fever exposure. Children under 15 years of age were the most susceptible to scarlet fever.

The Association between Environmental Factors and Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing Region: Using GIS and Spatial Regression Models

“…It has clearly witnessed that high-high disease incidence cluster districts were reduced in 2014 compared to 2013, that is four cluster districts to three cluster districts, which is a significant change over time, and it should be a great achievement in those places where population density is high. Population density and overcrowded situations are also associated risk factors for scarlet fever incidence, which has been established from our earlier study [35]. This finding is consistent with the study of Qian Hi-Kun et al in Beijing [18].…”

“…Socio-demographic data for each district were obtained from the Beijing Bureau of Statistics of China [34]. The case definition has been published in our earlier publication of Mahara et al [35]. …”

Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015

“…Gehendra et al conducted a spatial analysis of scarlet fever in Beijing and detected several high-risk areas. This was essential to take targeted efforts of prevention and control for this disease [ 24 ]. Zheng et al also explored the clusters of the disease for Gansu Province [ 25 ].…”

Oral lesions of higher clinical frequency in children – literature review

“…Contagious disease caused by a erythrogenic exotoxin produced by Streptococcus pyogene (group A beta-hemolytic), which usually affects children between 2-10 years of age 50 , after an incubation period of 12 hours to 7 days, by direct contact with the infected person, especially in winter and spring 51,53 . Scarlet fever hardly affects children under 2 years of age, as they are protected by maternal antibodies through natural breastfeeding 54 .…”