Spatiotemporal Flood Hazard Map Prediction Using Machine Learning for a Flood Early Warning Case Study: Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Abstract

Floods cause disastrous damage to the environment, economy, and humanity. Flood losses can be reduced if adequate management is implemented in the pre-disaster period. Flood hazard maps comprise disaster risk information displayed on geo-location maps and the potential flood events that occur in an area. This paper proposes a spatiotemporal flood hazard map framework to generate a flood hazard map using spatiotemporal data. The framework has three processes: (1) temporal prediction, which uses the LSTM technique to predict water levels and rainfall for the next time; (2) spatial interpolation, which uses the IDW technique to estimate values; and (3) map generation, which uses the CNN technique to predict flood events and generate flood hazard maps. The study area is Chiang Mai Province, Thailand. The generated hazard map covers 20,107 km2. There are 14 water-level telemetry stations and 16 rain gauge stations. The proposed model accurately predicts water level and rainfall, as demonstrated by the evaluation results (RMSE, MAE, and R2). The generated map has a 95.25% mean accuracy and a 97.25% mean F1-score when compared to the actual flood event. The framework enhances the accuracy and responsiveness of flood hazard maps to reduce potential losses before floods occur.