Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Land Use and Carbon Stock in Shanghai

Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) constitutes a critical component of carbon reservoirs within terrestrial ecosystems. The ramifications of urban land use transitions on SOC dynamics, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions such as Shanghai, remain insufficiently elucidated. This investigation synergizes a predictive land use change model (Logistic-CA-Markov) with an ecosystem service quantification framework (InVEST), aiming to delineate the interplay between SOC variability and Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) under natural development and ecological protection scenarios. Empirical observations from 2010 to 2020 reveal a contraction in Shanghai’s agricultural land of 34,912.76 hectares, juxtaposed with an expansion of urban built-up areas of 36,048.24 hectares. Projections for 2030 under an ecological protection scenario indicate a moderated urban sprawl, reducing built-up area expansion by 13,518 hectares relative to the natural development scenario. Notably, the net carbon sequestration capacity of Shanghai is anticipated to diminish by approximately 0.418 million tons between 2020 and 2030. This trend is observed under both considered scenarios, forecasting a cumulative reduction in SOC stocks exceeding 1 million tons by 2030. The natural development pathway portends a more pronounced and accelerated depletion of SOC reserves. Although ecological conservation measures show the potential to decelerate this loss, they appear insufficient to reverse the ongoing decline in SOC stocks. This study advocates for strategic urban planning interventions focused on constraining the growth of building densities and augmenting the preservation and management of eco-lands. Such measures are imperative for bolstering Shanghai’s carbon sequestration capacity.